A comparison of Indian Ocean dipole prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble

Lei Lei; Wu Yanling; Tang Youmin

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.07.005

Volume 42 Issue 7

Nov. 2020

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Lei Lei，Wu Yanling，Tang Youmin. A comparison of Indian Ocean dipole prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2020, 42(7)：51–63 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.07.005

Citation:

Lei Lei，Wu Yanling，Tang Youmin. A comparison of Indian Ocean dipole prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2020, 42(7)：51–63 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.07.005

Citation:

Lei Lei，Wu Yanling，Tang Youmin. A comparison of Indian Ocean dipole prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2020, 42(7)：51–63 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.07.005

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A comparison of Indian Ocean dipole prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.07.005

Lei Lei^1
,,
Wu Yanling^{1
,
,},
Tang Youmin^{1, 2}

1.
State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources, Hangzhou 310012, China
2.
College of Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Northern British Columbia, Prince George, BC V2N4Z9, Canada

Received Date: 2019-06-12
Rev Recd Date: 2019-12-02

Available Online: 2020-11-18

Publish Date: 2020-07-25

Abstract

Abstract

In this work, we compare the actual prediction skills and potential predictability of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index among different models, using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble dataset. If defined by a 0.5 anomaly correlation skill, we find that skillful predictions of the IOD strongly vary among models, ranging from 2- to 4-month leads. The diversity in the prediction skills of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) over the east pole of the IOD is more obvious than that over the west pole, suggesting the model errors and the initial errors have more significant effects on SSTA over the east pole region. Also, there is a significant linear relationship between the actual prediction skills and potential predictability of the IOD. Finally, we find the actual prediction skills diversity is due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences onto the IOD in different models. The models with enhanced ENSO/IOD link tend to have high actual prediction skills.
- Indian Ocean dipole,
- actual prediction skill,
- potential predictability

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References(37)

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