Effects of a tropical cyclone data sets length on the result of risk assessment of storm surge

Liu Yongling; Feng Jianlong; Jiang Wensheng; Fang Weihua

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.03.006

Volume 38 Issue 3

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Liu Yongling, Feng Jianlong, Jiang Wensheng, Fang Weihua. Effects of a tropical cyclone data sets length on the result of risk assessment of storm surge[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(3): 60-70. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.03.006

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Liu Yongling, Feng Jianlong, Jiang Wensheng, Fang Weihua. Effects of a tropical cyclone data sets length on the result of risk assessment of storm surge[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(3): 60-70. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.03.006

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Effects of a tropical cyclone data sets length on the result of risk assessment of storm surge

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.03.006

1.
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
3.
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received Date: 2015-01-09
Rev Recd Date: 2015-04-01

Abstract

Abstract

The reasonable storm surge risk assessment is always limited by the number of the historical Tropical Cyclone (TC) samples. In this paper the influence of the data set length to the storm surge risk assessment result is studied in Lianjiang County of Fujian Province,which is based on the historical TC observations (1949-2010) and stochastic TC events (1 000 a). The two datasets were applied to force the ADCIRC model to simulate storm surges,which is used to determine the surge heights of typical return periods with the method of extreme value type I. The experiment result indicates that the surge heights of typical return periods have a close correlation with data sets length,i.e.,the longer the data sets length,the more stable of the results. As for the surge heights of 1 000 years return period,the results from 500 a length data sets can give a rather stable result,which is close to the results generated from the 1 000 a length data set. When carrying out storm surges hazards analysis,the results are more reasonable by using TC stochastic events in 1 000 years than those from historical TC events in decades of years.
- storm surge,
- Tropical Cyclone stochastic events,
- hazards analysis,
- return period

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References

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