Sea level rise projection in China’s coastal and offshore areas

Wang Hui; Quan Mengyuan; Xu Weiqing; Xiang Wenxi; Li Wenshan; Jiang Yuxi

doi:10.12284/hyxb2023096

Volume 45 Issue 8

Aug. 2023

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Wang Hui，Quan Mengyuan，Xu Weiqing, et al. Sea level rise projection in China’s coastal and offshore areas[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2023, 45(8)：1–10 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023096

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Wang Hui，Quan Mengyuan，Xu Weiqing, et al. Sea level rise projection in China’s coastal and offshore areas[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2023, 45(8)：1–10 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023096

Citation:

Wang Hui，Quan Mengyuan，Xu Weiqing, et al. Sea level rise projection in China’s coastal and offshore areas[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2023, 45(8)：1–10 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023096

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Sea level rise projection in China’s coastal and offshore areas

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2023096

1.
National Marine Data and Information Service, Tianjin 300171, China
2.
University of Michigan Joint Institute, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China

Received Date: 2022-11-28
Rev Recd Date: 2023-03-30

Available Online: 2023-08-31

Publish Date: 2023-08-31

Abstract

Abstract

Using tide gauge observation, satellite altimeter data, and the result of 10 CMIP6 Earth System Models with good simulation performance, the long-term trend of sea level change in China, and predicts the range of sea level rise in the future are analyzed in this study. The results show that: (1) from 1960 to 2021, the sea level in China’s coastal areas showed an accelerated rising trend, with a rise rate of 2.5 mm/a and an acceleration of 0.06 mm/a². From 1993 to 2021, the rise rate was 4.0 mm/a, higher than the global rate of 3.3 mm/a in the same period. (2) From 1980 to 2021, the sea level rise rates of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea were 3.5 mm/a, 3.3 mm/a and 3.6 mm/a, respectively. The sea level rise rates of the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea, the South China Sea were relatively fast, while the sea level rise rates of East China Sea was slow. The coastal sea level rose slowly from 1960s to 1970s, and accelerated after 1980s in the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. (3) Under the medium (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP5-8.5) scenarios, China’s offshore sea level will rise by 0.22 m (0.19−0.28 m) and 0.24 m (0.21−0.33 m) respectively in 2050, and will rise by 0.59 m (0.47−0.80 m) and 0.83 m (0.64−1.09 m) respectively in 2100. (4) During 2021−2040, the median value of sea level rise predicted by statistics is close to the predicted value under the low, medium and high scenarios of the numerical model. During 2041−2060, the predicted values of the low, medium and high scenarios of the numerical model are between the middle and high values of the statistical prediction. During 2081−2100, the high value of sea level rise predicted by statistics is close to that predicted by the medium scenario of the numerical model, the absolute deviation is 0.017 m, and the relative deviation is 3.4%. (5) Under the high scenario, the existing once-in-a-century extreme high sea level in 2100 will become less than 10 year return period, in which more than 50% of the stations will become less than 2 year return period, the defense capacity of coastal protection works and other infrastructure will be reduced, and the risk of flood and other disaster events in complex coastal cities will increase.
- climate change,
- sea level,
- rise trend,
- prediction

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References

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