Intelligent prediction of excess pore water pressure of seabed around double pile foundation under the action of regular wave
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摘要: 本研究针对波浪作用下双桩基础周围海床超孔隙水压力预测问题，开展了多目标智能预测研究。首先，通过波浪水槽试验，分析了不同波高条件下双桩基础周围海床超孔隙水压力时程演化和空间分布规律。其次，采用相位滞后检测与动态对齐方法对数据进行预处理，并分别利用门控循环单元（gated recurrent unit， GRU）和极限学习机（extreme learning machine，ELM）神经网络进行训练预测。最后，采用动态误差择优融合方法对两项模型的输出进行融合。结果表明：在当前试验条件下，随着波高增加，双桩基础周围海床超孔隙水压力幅值显著增大，沿深度方向呈现出明显的幅值衰减和相位滞后现象，且双桩基础周围超孔隙水压力最大幅值存在明显的空间差异。此外，构建的融合模型相较于原始模型或单一模型评估指标表现最优，其中皮尔逊相关系数（Pearson correlation coefficient, PCC）为
0.9827 ，纳什效率系数（Nash-sutcliffe efficiency，NSE）为0.9218 ，均方根误差（root mean square error，RMSE）为0.003305 ，平均绝对误差（mean absolute error，MAE）为0.002559 。研究成果为波浪作用下桩基周围海床多目标孔压智能预测提供了一种有效途径。Abstract: This study conducted multi-objective intelligent prediction research on the excess pore water pressure around double-pile foundations in the seabed under wave action. Firstly, the time-history evolution and spatial distribution of excess pore water pressure around the double-pile foundation under different wave heights are analyzed by wave flume test. Secondly, the phase lag detection and dynamic alignment method are used to preprocess the data, and GRU and ELM neural networks are used for training prediction respectively. Finally, the dynamic error preferred fusion method is used to fuse the outputs of the two models. The results show that under the current test conditions, with the increase of wave height, the amplitude of excess pore water pressure in the seabed around the double-pile foundation increases significantly, showing obvious amplitude attenuation and phase lag along the depth direction, and there are obvious spatial differences in the maximum amplitude of excess pore water pressure around the double-pile foundation. In addition, the constructed fusion model performs best compared with the original model or single model evaluation metrics, where PCC is0.9827 , NSE is0.9218 , RMSE is0.003305 , and MAE is0.002559 . The research results provide an effective way for the intelligent prediction of multi-objective pore pressure of seabed around pile foundation under wave action.-
Key words:
- double pile foundation /
- excess pore water pressure /
- phase lag detection /
- dynamic error /
- fusion model
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图 8 实际波高与超孔压（入射波高0.06 m工况下）
Fig. 8 Actual wave height and excess pore pressure (under the condition of an incident wave height of 0.06 m)
图 13 评估指标箱型分布(a:PCC; b:NSE; c:RMSE; d:MAE)
Fig. 13 Evaluation metrics box distribution(a:PCC; b:NSE; c:RMSE; d:MAE)
图 15 超孔压最大幅值预测结果
Fig. 15 Prediction results of the maximum amplitude of excess pore pressure
表 1 最大相关系数与最优滞后步数
Tab. 1 Maximum correlation coefficient and optimal lag step
孔压测点 最大相关系数 最优滞后步数 P1 0.9859 5 P2 0.9865 9 P3 0.9763 15 P4 0.7869 20 P5 0.9886 12 P6 0.9872 20 P7 0.9751 26 P8 0.8749 35 P9 0.9863 21 P10 0.9856 26 P11 0.9752 33 P12 0.9597 39 
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表 2 不同模型评估指标均值
Tab. 2 The mean value of evaluation metrics of different models
模型名称 PCC NSE RMSE MAE 融合模型 0.9827 0.9218 0.003305 0.002559 ZDGRU 0.9811 0.9143 0.003607 0.002907 ZDELM 0.9809 0.9141 0.003609 0.002978 GRU 0.6292 0.4227 0.015709 0.014037 ELM 0.6198 0.4119 0.015847 0.014172
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