Comparison of simulation results of the Arctic sea ice by BCC_CSM: CMIP5 and CMIP6 historical experiments
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摘要: 本文利用北京气候中心气候系统模式(BCC_CSM)在最近两个耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5和CMIP6)的历史试验模拟结果，对北极海冰范围和冰厚的模拟性能进行了比较，结果表明：(1) CMIP6改善了CMIP5模拟海冰范围季节变化过大的问题，总体上更接近观测结果；(2)两个CMIP试验阶段中BCC_CSM模拟的海冰厚度都偏小，但CMIP6试验对夏季海冰厚度过薄问题有所改进。通过对影响海冰生消过程的冰面和冰底热收支的分析，我们探讨了上述模拟偏差以及CMIP6模拟结果改善的成因。分析表明，8−9月海洋热通量、向下短波辐射和反照率对模拟结果的误差影响较大，CMIP6试验在这些方面有较大改善；而12月至翌年2月，CMIP5模拟的北极海冰范围偏大主要是海洋热通量偏低所导致，CMIP6模拟的海洋热通量较CMIP5大，但北大西洋表层海流的改善才是巴芬湾附近海冰外缘线位置改善的主要原因。CMIP试验模拟的夏季海冰厚度偏薄主要是因为6−8月海洋热通量和冰面热收支都偏大，而CMIP6试验模拟的夏季海冰厚度有所改善主要是由于海洋热通量和净短波辐射的改善。海冰模拟结果的改善与CMIP6海冰模块和大气模块参数化的改进有直接和间接的关系，通过改变短波辐射、冰面反照率和海洋热通量，使BCC_CSM模式对北极海冰的模拟性能也得到有效提高。Abstract: In this paper, the simulation performance of the sea ice concentration, ice extent/area, and ice thickness of the Arctic is compared based on the results of the climate system model of Beijing Climate Center (BCC_CSM) in the recent two coupling model comparison programs (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The results show that, compared with the results in the CMIP5, the CMIP6 historical experiment recently released has different degrees of improvement in the Arctic sea ice extent seasonal cycle and sea ice thickness, which are shown as follows: (1) In the CMIP6 experiment, the simulated sea ice extent in summer is larger, while the sea ice extent in winter is smaller, which is generally closer to the observation result than the CMIP5. (2) The sea ice thickness simulated by BCC_CSM in the two CMIP is relatively small, but the CMIP6 experiment slightly improves the problem of excessively thin sea ice thickness. Through the analysis of the variables (such as SST, air temperature and radiation flux, turbulent heat flux, ocean heat flux) in different spheres of the climate system affecting the sea ice process, we discuss the causes of the above simulation errors and the improvement of CMIP6 simulation results. The analysis shows that the Arctic sea ice extent simulated by BCC_CSM model in CMIP5 from August to September is small, which is mainly caused by greater ocean heat flux, larger downward short-wave radiation and smaller albedo, while CMIP6 experiment has a great improvement in these aspects. From December to February, the Arctic sea ice extent simulated by CMIP5 is relatively large mainly because of the low ocean heat flux, and the ocean heat flux simulated by CMIP6 is larger than that of CMIP5. However, the improvement of the north Atlantic regional ocean surface current is the main reason for the improvement of the sea ice extent in this region, especially the sea ice edge in the Baffin Bay. The thinner summer sea ice thickness simulated by CMIP5 is mainly due to the larger ocean heat flux and ice surface heat budget from June to August, while the improvement of sea ice thickness simulated by CMIP6 is mainly due to the improvement of ocean heat flux and net short-wave radiation. The improvement of sea ice simulation has direct and indirect relationship with CMIP6 sea ice module and atmospheric module parameterization. By changing short-wave radiation, ice surface albedo and ocean heat flux, the performance of BCC_CSM mode on Arctic sea ice has been effectively improved.
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Key words:
- BCC_CSM /
- climate system models /
- Arctic sea ice /
- CMIP5 /
- CMIP6
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图 1 观测和模拟的1980−2012年北极地区3月和9月的平均海冰密集度分布及变化趋势
Fig. 1 Observed and simulated average sea ice concentration distribution and trend in March and September of 1980−2012 in the Arctic region
图 2 北极海冰范围的季节变化（a），3月（b）和9月（d）的年际变化以及CMIP5、CMIP6分别与观测（SSMI）的海冰范围差值（c）
Fig. 2 Seasonal cycle (a) and internal changes in the extent of the Arctic sea ice in March (b) and September (d), c is the difference between CMIP5 and CMIP6 and observation (SSMI) respectively
图 3 PIOMAS和BCC模拟的1980−2012年平均海冰厚度的分布与长期变化趋势
Fig. 3 Distribution and long-term trend of average sea ice thickness in 1980−2012 simulated by PIOMAS and BCC
图 4 PIOMAS和BCC模拟的4月（a）和9月（b）区域平均海冰厚度的年际变化和逐月变化（c）
Fig. 4 Internal and monthly (c) changes in average sea ice thickness in April (a) and September (b) regions simulated by PIOMAS and BCC
图 5 再分析数据及模拟的8−9月垂直方向总热收支、海洋热通量、冰表面热收支、湍流通量、净辐射通量、净长波辐射、净短波辐射、反照率的分布
Fig. 5 Distribution of vertical total heat budget, ocean heat flux, surface heat balance, turbulent flux, net radiation flux, net long-wave radiation, net short-wave radiation, and albedo in August and September from reanalysis data and simulation results
图 6 再分析数据及模拟的冬季（12月至翌年2月）垂直方向总热收支、海洋热通量、冰表面热收支、湍流通量、净长波辐射的分布
Fig. 6 Distribution of vertical total heat budget, ocean heat flux, surface heat balance, turbulent flux, net radiation flux, net long-wave radiation from December to February from reanalysis data and simulation results
图 7 冬季大西洋海区平均海冰范围(a)、海表温度(b)、近地面气温(c)、净短波辐射(d)、净长波辐射(e)、净辐射通量(f)、湍流通量(g)、冰面热收支(h)、海洋热通量(i)、垂直方向总热收支(j)的年际变化
Fig. 7 Interannual variation of average sea ice extent (a), sea surface temperature (b), near-surface temperature (c), net short-wave radiation (d), net long-wave radiation (e), net radiation flux (f), turbulent flux (g), ice surface heat balance (h), ocean heat flux (i), and vertical total heat budget (j) of the Atlantic region in winter
图 8 冬季大西洋海区的海冰密集度、净辐射通量、湍流通量、冰面/水面热收支、海洋热通量、垂直方向总热收支的空间分布
Fig. 8 Spatial distribution of sea ice concentration, net radiation flux, turbulent flux, ice/water surface heat balance, ocean heat flux, and vertical total heat budget of the Atlantic region in winter
图 9 冬季大西洋海区海表面环流和海表温度空间分布
Fig. 9 Spatial distribution of sea surface circulation and sea surface temperature in the Atlantic region in winter
图 10 6−8月垂直方向总热收支、海洋热通量、冰面热收支、湍流通量、净辐射通量、净长波辐射、净短波辐射、反照率、向下短波辐射的分布
Fig. 10 Distribution of vertical total heat budget, ocean heat flux, ice surface heat balance, turbulent flux, net radiation flux, net long-wave radiation, net short-wave radiation, albedo, and downward short-wave radiation from June to August
图 11 6−8月75°N以北区域平均的近地面气温(a)、海表面温度(b)、反照率(c)、向下短波辐射(d)、净短波辐射(e)、向下长波辐射(f)、净长波辐射(g)、净辐射通量(h)、湍流通量(i)、冰表面热收支(j)、海洋热通量(k)、垂直方向总热收支(l)的年际变化
Fig. 11 Interannual variability of the area average surface air temperature (a), sea surface temperature (b), albedo (c), downward short-wave radiation (d), net shortwave radiation (e), downward long-wave radiation (f), net long wave radiation (g), net radiation flux (h), turbulent flux (i), the ice surface heat balance (j) , the ocean heat flux (k) , and vertical total heat budget (l) of the area north of 75 ° N from June to August
表 1 CMIP5与CMIP6试验阶段BCC_CSM模式各分量模式信息
Tab. 1 Component mode information of BCC_CSM mode in CMIP5 and CMIP6
模式版本 CMIP5试验的BCC-CSM1.1m模式 CMIP6试验的BCC-CSM2-MR模式 大气模式分量 BCC-AGCM2.2
T106，26层，顶层为2.917 hPaBCC-AGCM3-MR
（1）T106，46层，顶层为1.459 hPa;（2）云物理，辐射传输和边界层等过程参数化方案的改进陆面模式分量 BCC-AVIM1.0 BCC-AVIM2.0 海洋模式分量 MOM4-L40v2 MOM4-L40v2 海冰模式分量 SISv2 SISv2冰面湍流通量参数化方案改进海冰反照率相关参数优化 
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