Comparison of extreme wind speeds predicted by Monte-Carlo simulation and empirical track model

Guo Yunxia; Hou Yijun; Qi Peng

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.07.006

Volume 42 Issue 7

Nov. 2020

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Guo Yunxia，Hou Yijun，Qi Peng. Comparison of extreme wind speeds predicted by Monte-Carlo simulation and empirical track model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2020, 42(7)：64–77 doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.07.006

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Comparison of extreme wind speeds predicted by Monte-Carlo simulation and empirical track model

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.07.006

Guo Yunxia^{1, 2, 4
,},
Hou Yijun^{1, 2, 3, 4
,
,},
Qi Peng^{1, 3, 4}

1.
Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China
2.
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3.
Laboratory for Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao), Qingdao 266237, China
4.
Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China

Received Date: 2019-07-08
Rev Recd Date: 2019-12-26

Available Online: 2020-11-18

Publish Date: 2020-07-25

Abstract

Abstract

Typhoon is one of the most serious natural disasters in southeast coastal region of China. In this paper, the traditional Monte-Carlo simulation and the advanced empirical track model are respectively used to predict the extreme wind speed (10-min mean at 10 m height) of typhoons in the southeast coastal region of China, and the prediction results of two methods are compared. An area extending 200 km inland from the coastline is divided into 0.25°×0.25° grid cells and each grid is taken as the research point. Firstly, the Monte-Carlo method is used to generate virtual typhoons of 1 000-year for each research point. Then, we use the empirical track model to construct virtual typhoons of 1 000-year in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, from which typhoon events affecting each research site are extracted by using the simulation circle method. Next, the Yan Meng wind field model is used to calculate the wind speed of the extracted typhoons, from which samples of maximum wind speed can be derived. Finally, the extreme wind speed of different return periods for each research point is predicted by the extreme value distribution. Through comparison, we find that in some inland areas, the predicted wind speeds by empirical track model are slightly higher than those by Monte-Carlo method, and in most coastal areas the opposite is true. This is mainly caused by the difference of the central pressure of the virtual typhoons constructed by two methods and the uncertainty of the model itself. The research results of this paper can provide useful reference for the disaster prevention and mitigation system.
- typhoon,
- Monte-Carlo simulation,
- empirical track model,
- wind field model,
- extreme wind speed

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References(45)

References

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