Grey catastrophe year prediction for the abundance of neon flying squid （<i>Ommastrephes bartramii</i>） in the Northwest Pacific

Xie Mingyang; Chen Xinjun

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.04.005

Volume 42 Issue 4

Nov. 2020

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Article Navigation > Haiyang Xuebao > 2020 > 42(4): 40-46

Xie Mingyang，Chen Xinjun. Grey catastrophe year prediction for the abundance of neon flying squid （ Ommastrephes bartramii） in the Northwest Pacific[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2020, 42(4)：40–46，doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253−4193.2020.04.005

Citation:

Xie Mingyang，Chen Xinjun. Grey catastrophe year prediction for the abundance of neon flying squid （ Ommastrephes bartramii ） in the Northwest Pacific[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2020, 42(4)：40–46，doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253−4193.2020.04.005

Citation:

PDF( 1118 KB)

Grey catastrophe year prediction for the abundance of neon flying squid （Ommastrephes bartramii） in the Northwest Pacific

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2020.04.005

Xie Mingyang^1
,,
Chen Xinjun^{1, 2, 3, 4, 5
,
,}

1.
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China
3.
National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai 201306, China
4.
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China
5.
Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China

Received Date: 2019-05-25
Rev Recd Date: 2019-06-28

Available Online: 2020-11-18

Publish Date: 2020-04-25

Abstract

Abstract

Neon flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii is a short-lived cephalopod species whose abundance is highly susceptible to marine environmental changes and has large interannual fluctuations. Based on the statistical data from the squid fishery in the Northwest Pacific from 1995 to 2017, catch per unit effort (CPUE) was derived as an abundance index and the grey catastrophic prediction method was used to establish the GM（1, 1）model for the upper and lower catastrophic years and to forecast the future catastrophic years. The results show that the average relative error of the lower limit catastrophic prediction model established based on GLM-model-standardized CPUE is 15.32%, the average relative error of the upper catastrophic prediction model is 8.19%, and the accuracy tests for both models attain the level I accuracy. The study forecasts that the next upper catastrophic year may occur in 2021 (CPUE≥2.39 t/(ship·a)), and the lower catastrophe year occurred in 2027 (CPUE≤2.13 t/(ship·a)). The study also suggests that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño-La Nina events are important factors driving large fluctuations in the squid abundance. The forecast can provide a reference for squid fishing enterprises and managing departments in the Northwest Pacific.
- Ommastrephes bartramii,
- abundance,
- grey catastrophic year prediction,
- GM (1, 1) model,
- climate change

FullText(HTML)

References(24)

References

[1]	陈新军, 钱卫国, 刘必林, 等. 主要经济大洋性鱿鱼资源渔场生产性调查与渔业概况[J]. 上海海洋大学学报, 2019, 28(3): 344-356. Chen Xinjun, Qian Weiguo, Liu Bilin, et al. Productive survey and fishery for major pelagic economic squid in the world[J]. Journal of Shanghai Ocean University, 2019, 28(3): 344-356.
[2]	Chen Xinjun, Chen Yong, Tian Siquan, et al. An assessment of the west winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. Fisheries Research, 2008, 92(2/3): 221−230.
[3]	Rodhouse P G. Managing and forecasting squid fisheries in variable environments[J]. Fisheries Research, 2001, 54(1): 3−8. doi: 10.1016/S0165-7836(01)00370-8
[4]	陈新军, 刘必林. 2004年北太平洋柔鱼钓产量分析及作业渔场与表温的关系[J]. 湛江海洋大学学报, 2005, 25(6): 41−45. Chen Xinjun, Liu Bilin. Analysis on catch of Ommastrephes bartramii in squid jigging fishery and the relationship between fishing ground and SST in the North Pacific Ocean in 2004[J]. Journal of Zhanjiang Ocean University, 2005, 25(6): 41−45.
[5]	Chen Xinjun, Cao Jie, Chen Yong, et al. Effect of the Kuroshio on the spatial distribution of the red flying squid Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean[J]. Bulletin of Marine Science, 2012, 88(1): 63−71. doi: 10.5343/bms.2010.1098
[6]	Chen Xinjun, Zhao Xiaohu, Chen Yong. Influence of El Niño/La Niña on the western winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the northwestern Pacific Ocean[J]. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2007, 64(6): 1152−1160. doi: 10.1093/icesjms/fsm103
[7]	余为, 陈新军, 易倩. 不同气候模态下西北太平洋柔鱼渔场环境特征分析[J]. 水产学报, 2017, 41(4): 525−534. Yu Wei, Chen Xinjun, Yi Qian. Analysis of variations in the environmental conditions on the fishing ground of neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean under different climate modes[J]. Journal of Fisheries of China, 2017, 41(4): 525−534.
[8]	唐峰华, 靳少非, 张胜茂, 等. 北太平洋柔鱼渔场时空分布与海洋环境要素的研究[J]. 中国环境科学, 2014, 34(8): 2093−2100. Tang Fenghua, Jin Shaofei, Zhang Shengmao, et al. Study for marine environmental elements on spatio-temporal distribution of neon flying squid in the north Pacific fishing ground[J]. China Environmental Science, 2014, 34(8): 2093−2100.
[9]	刘金立, 陈新军, 李纲, 等. 西北太平洋柔鱼资源综合配置模型及管理策略探讨[J]. 海洋与湖沼, 2014, 45(5): 1016−1022. doi: 10.11693/hyhz20130800115 Liu Jinli, Chen Xinjun, Li Gang, et al. Management strategy and comprehensive allocation model of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean[J]. Oceanologia et Limnologia Sinica, 2014, 45(5): 1016−1022. doi: 10.11693/hyhz20130800115
[10]	袁红春, 顾怡婷, 汪金涛, 等. 西北太平洋柔鱼中长期预测方法研究[J]. 海洋科学, 2013, 37(10): 65−70. Yuan Hongchun, Gu Yiting, Wang Jintao, et al. Study on medium to long term forecasting of squid in the Northwestern Pacific[J]. Marine Sciences, 2013, 37(10): 65−70.
[11]	陈新军. 灰色系统理论在渔业科学中的应用[M]. 北京: 中国农业出版社, 2003: 1-32. Chen Xinjun. Grey System Theory in Fisheries Science[M]. Beijing: China Agriculture Press, 2003: 1−32.
[12]	高雪, 陈新军, 余为. 基于灰色系统的西北太平洋柔鱼冬春生群资源丰度预测模型[J]. 海洋学报, 2017, 39(6): 55−61. Gao Xue, Chen Xinjun, Yu Wei. Forecasting model of the abundance index of winter-spring cohort of Neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) in the Northwest Pacific Ocean based on grey system theory[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2017, 39(6): 55−61.
[13]	陈新军, 郑波. 中西太平洋金枪鱼围网渔业鲣鱼资源的时空分布[J]. 海洋学研究, 2007, 25(2): 13−22. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2007.02.002 Chen Xinjun, Zheng Bo. Study on the temp-spatial distribution of skipjack resources for tuna purse seine in the west-central Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of Marine Sciences, 2007, 25(2): 13−22. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-909X.2007.02.002
[14]	赵龙明, 卢琪, 王娜, 等. 改进的灰色关联分析法在渔业水质评价中的应用[J]. 华北理工大学学报: 自然科学版, 2017, 39(2): 110−114, 119. Zhao Longming, Lu Qi, Wang Na, et al. Application of improved grey correlation analysis method in fishery water quality assessment[J]. Journal of North China University of Science and Technology: Natural Science Edition, 2017, 39(2): 110−114, 119.
[15]	陈业华, 邱菀华. 灰色灾变预测模型及其应用[J]. 北京航空航天大学学报, 1998, 24(1): 79−82. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5965.1998.01.022 Chen Yehua, Qiu Wanhua. Grey model of calamity forecast and its application to the calamity forecast[J]. Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 1998, 24(1): 79−82. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1001-5965.1998.01.022
[16]	陈芃. 东南太平洋秘鲁鳀渔情预报研究[D]. 上海: 上海海洋大学, 2017. Chen Peng. Study for the fishery forecast of the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in the Southeast Pacific Ocean[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai Ocean University, 2017.
[17]	刘思峰, 杨英杰, 吴利丰, 等. 灰色系统理论及其应用[M]. 7版. 北京: 科学出版社, 2014: 140-168. Liu Sifeng, Yang Yingjie, Wu Lifeng, et al. Grey System Theory and its Application[M]. 7th ed. Beijing: China Science Press, 2014: 140−168.
[18]	李燕. 灰色预测模型的研究及其应用[D]. 杭州: 浙江理工大学, 2012. Li Yan. Research and application of the grey forecast model[D]. Hangzhou: Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, 2012.
[19]	刘思峰, 邓聚龙. GM(1,1)模型的适用范围[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 2000, 20(5): 121−124. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6788.2000.05.023 Liu Sifeng, Deng Julong. The range suitable for GM (1,1)[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2000, 20(5): 121−124. doi: 10.3321/j.issn:1000-6788.2000.05.023
[20]	Yu Wei, Chen Xinjun, Yi Qian, et al. A review of interaction between neon flying squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) and oceanographic variability in the North Pacific Ocean[J]. Journal of Ocean University of China, 2015, 14(4): 739−748. doi: 10.1007/s11802-015-2562-8
[21]	沈建华, 韩士鑫, 崔雪森, 等. 北太平洋巴特柔鱼渔业2001年低产原因分析[J]. 水产学报, 2003, 27(4): 350−357. Shen Jianhua, Han Shixin, Cui Xuesen, et al. An explaination on poorer harvest of flying squid in the North Pacific in 2001[J]. Journal of Fisheries of China, 2003, 27(4): 350−357.
[22]	陈峰, 陈新军, 钱卫国, 等. 水温变动对2009年西北太平洋柔鱼产量下降的影响[J]. 广东海洋大学学报, 2010, 30(1): 65−71. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-9159.2010.01.013 Chen Feng, Chen Xinjun, Qian Weiguo, et al. Influence of variability of temperature on decline of catch for Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean in 2009[J]. Journal of Guangdong Ocean University, 2010, 30(1): 65−71. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-9159.2010.01.013
[23]	唐峰华, 崔雪森, 樊伟, 等. 北太平洋柔鱼渔获量与海洋环境关系的遥感学研究[J]. 海洋技术, 2011, 30(2): 7−12. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2029.2011.02.002 Tang Fenghua, Cui Xuesen, Fan Wei, et al. Study on relationship of neon flying squid yield in North Pacific Ocean with marine environment by remote sensing[J]. Ocean Technology, 2011, 30(2): 7−12. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1003-2029.2011.02.002
[24]	Yu Wei, Chen Xinjun, Yi Qian, et al. Variability of suitable habitat of western winter-spring cohort for neon flying squid in the Northwest Pacific under anomalous environments[J]. PLoS One, 2015, 10(4): e0122997. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0122997