Stock assessment for Indian Ocean blue marlin (<i>Makaira nigricans</i>) using Catch-MSY model

Geng Zhe; Zhu Jiangfeng; Wang Yang; Dai Xiaojie

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.08.003

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Geng Zhe，Zhu Jiangfeng，Wang Yang, et al. Stock assessment for Indian Ocean blue marlin ( Makaira nigricans) using Catch-MSY model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2019, 41(8)：26–35，doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253−4193.2019.08.003

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Geng Zhe，Zhu Jiangfeng，Wang Yang, et al. Stock assessment for Indian Ocean blue marlin ( Makaira nigricans ) using Catch-MSY model[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2019, 41(8)：26–35，doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253− 4193.2019.08.003

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Stock assessment for Indian Ocean blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) using Catch-MSY model

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.08.003

Geng Zhe^{1, 2
,},
Zhu Jiangfeng^{1, 2
,
,},
Wang Yang^{1, 2},
Dai Xiaojie^{1, 2}

1.
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China

Received Date: 2018-05-25
Rev Recd Date: 2018-08-28

Available Online: 2021-04-21

Publish Date: 2019-08-25

Abstract

Abstract

Catch-MSY method can temporarily replace conventional stock assessment models in making management decisions for a data-limited fishery, even when only catch data are available. In this study, for the sensitivity analysis and assessment of the Indian Ocean blue marlin, we established 15 scenarios based on non-informative and informative prior distributions of the intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K. Sensitivity analysis reveals a high negative correlation between parameters r and K, and the estimated maximum sustainable yield (MSY) increases with r. Sensitivity analysis shows that the length of catch time series has less influences on the results of the assessments, but the assessments are sensitive to catch data in the first and last year. The assessment results reveal that the status of total biomass is optimal, with the ratio of B₂₀₁₅ to B_MSY higher than 1. Exception is only two scenarios, the exploitation status under the other scenarios would be overfishing, since all the ratios of F₂₀₁₅ to F_MSY would be higher than 1. Projections of future stock status show that, to attain the objective of maintaining B/B_MSY>1 with a probability of higher than 50% in the next 10 a, the catch would have to be reduced to 90% (13 860 t) of the current level. Considering that the catch-MSY method is conservative under data-limited conditions, maintaining 100% to 110% (15 400–16 940 t) of the current catch could achieve the objective of maintaining B/B_MSY >1 with a probability of higher than 50% in the next 5 a.
- Indian Ocean,
- Makaira nigricans,
- catch-only model,
- stock assessment,
- management strategy

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References(40)

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