Freshwater flux variations based on CMIP5 climate models

Zhang Shouwen; Wang Hui; Jiang Hua; Du Ling

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.01.002

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Zhang Shouwen, Wang Hui, Jiang Hua, Du Ling. Freshwater flux variations based on CMIP5 climate models[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(1): 10-19. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.01.002

Citation:

Zhang Shouwen, Wang Hui, Jiang Hua, Du Ling. Freshwater flux variations based on CMIP5 climate models[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(1): 10-19. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.01.002

Zhang Shouwen, Wang Hui, Jiang Hua, Du Ling. Freshwater flux variations based on CMIP5 climate models[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(1): 10-19. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.01.002

Citation:

Zhang Shouwen, Wang Hui, Jiang Hua, Du Ling. Freshwater flux variations based on CMIP5 climate models[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2016, 38(1): 10-19. doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.01.002

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Freshwater flux variations based on CMIP5 climate models

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.01.002

1.
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Science, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China;National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China
2.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, State Oceanic Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3.
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Science, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China

Received Date: 2014-12-19
Rev Recd Date: 2015-02-02

Abstract

Abstract

Reanalysis precipitation datasets from Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and evaporation datasets from WHOI OAflux project are used to evaluate the historical freshwater flux from 13 CMIP5 climate models. The results show that all models could capture the climatological space distribution while the double ITCZs are widespread and the tropical ocean is the region with most significant uncertainties among the models. Latitudinal distributions of zonal-mean freshwater and their seasonal variations are broadly captured by most of the models. But the models' results are smaller than the reanalysis data,freshwater simulation between 10°S and the equator shows significant bias because of the overestimate of freshwater in the January. On the seasonal timescale,the models show good result in the North Hemisphere,but have some deficiencies in the South Hemisphere. On the interannual timescale,the models could provide a suitable simulation of freshwater space distribution induced by ENSO,but they are deficient in simulating the temporal characteristics. Results of multi-model ensemble are superior to single model in all respects of evaluation.Tropical and sub-tropical ocean will change significant under the circumstance of global warming,where used to be dry will be drier and wet will be wetter. Spatial distribution pattern will not change markedly under different scenarios,but the amplitudes of freshwater flux and the consistency among the models will strengthen under RCP8.5 compared with the RCP4.5.
- freshwater flux,
- CMIP5,
- model evaluation,
- projection,
- scenarios

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