Application of Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation in the construction of synthetic typhoon in Northwest Pacific

Xu Xiaowu; Chen Yongping; Tan Ya; Liu Chang; Li Shanglu; Che Zhumei

doi:10.12284/hyxb2024014

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Xu Xiaowu，Chen Yongping，Tan Ya, et al. Application of Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation in the construction of synthetic typhoon in Northwest Pacific[J]. Haiyang Xuebao，2024, 46(3)：1–11 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024014

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Application of Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation in the construction of synthetic typhoon in Northwest Pacific

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2024014

Xu Xiaowu^{1, 2, 3
,},
Chen Yongping^{1, 2
,
,},
Tan Ya^{1, 2},
Liu Chang^{1, 2},
Li Shanglu³,
Che Zhumei³

1.
The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2.
College of Harbor, Costal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
3.
Marine Monitoring and Forecasting Center of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310007, China

Received Date: 2023-07-12
Rev Recd Date: 2023-10-20

Available Online: 2023-12-20

Abstract

Abstract

Reliable assessment of the impact and risk of typhoons on coastal areas is very important for scientific resistance to typhoon disasters. China has a detailed typhoon observation record with a history of only 60 years, which makes it limited in estimating extreme wind speed with a long recurrence period and corresponding extreme wave height and tide level. The insufficient records also limits the application of data-driven models in typhoon disaster prediction. Therefore, it is necessary to construct synthetic typhoons based on the actual typhoon travel law to overcome the problem of insufficient historical observations. In this paper, 18 671 synthetic typhoons were constructed in the Northwest Pacific Ocean by using the Empirical Path Model based on kernel density estimation, and the parameters such as the start and end position, frequency of occurrence, travel speed and direction of the synthetic typhoons were statistically compared and analyzed with historical typhoons. The results show that the synthetic typhoon constructed based on the proposed method is generally consistent with the traveling characteristics of historical typhoons in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Through the construction of these synthetic typhoons, a synthetic typhoon database with sufficient data and reliable performance can be provided for the study of extreme wave and storm surge along the coast of China.
- kernel density estimation,
- Empirical Path Model,
- synthetic typhoon,
- Northwest Pacific Ocean

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References(26)

References

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