Study on objective classification of extratropical storm surge induced by cold-front along Tianjin coast
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摘要: 选取1956−2016年共126例天津沿岸风暴潮个例,基于统计资料研究其发生规律,并按照天气形势将之分类。冷锋型温带风暴潮个例占据全部风暴潮个例的60%以上,其平均每年发生1.28次,2013−2016年有明显增多的趋势。利用Lamb-Jenkinson(L-J)客观分型方法,对2003−2016年的冷锋型温带风暴潮个例进行客观分型,并计算5个环流指数。分型结果表明:除有1例无法归类外,其余均可进行客观分类。在全部分型的27类环流类型中,冷锋型温带风暴潮个例的环流主要集中在12类之中。其中反气旋混合偏东气流型、反气旋混合东北气流型、偏东气流型均发生较多次数,共占据了总数的58.8%。此3类出现次数多,产生的增水大,可认为冷锋型温带风暴潮个例依据客观分型再次细分为此3种主要类型。3种主要的客观环流类型80%集中出现在秋、冬季节。利用典型过程的海平面气压场进行对比分析,其客观分型结果可以对影响渤海的冷锋走向和冷高压中心位置进行区分。环流指数的强弱粗略的表示了风暴潮过程的强弱。客观环流类型和环流指数,可以为风暴潮个例对比分析提供客观依据。Abstract: A total of 126 cases of storm surge along Tianjin coast from 1956 to 2016 were selected. Based on statistical data to study its occurrence, and classify these cases according to weather circulation situation. Extratropical storm surge induced by cold-front accounted for more than 60% of all cases, with an average of 1.28 times per year, and there is a significant increase in 2013−2016. Using Lamb-Jenkinson (L-J) objective typing method, extratropical storm surges induced by cold-front from 2003 to 2016 were objectively classified, and calculated five circulation indices. The results of objective typing showed that: except for one case which can not be classified, the other processes can be classified objectively. Among all 27 types of circulation, circulation situations of extratropical storm surges induced by cold-front are mainly concentrated in 12 types. Types of co-influence of anticyclone and eastward airflow, types of co-influence of anticyclone and northeaster airflow and types of influence of easterly airflow occurred many times, accounting for 58.8% of the total. These three types of objective circulation situation occur more frequently and increase more storm surge elevation. It can be concluded extratropical storm surges induced by cold-front can be subdivided into three types again according to objective classification. 80% of these three main circulation types are concentrated in autumn and winter. By comparing and analyzing the sea-level pressure field of typical processes, these results of objective circulation typing can be used to distinguish the direction of the cold front and the location of the center of the cold high in the circulation situation affecting the Bohai Sea. The strength of circulation index roughly indicates the strength of storm surge process. The objective circulation type and circulation index can provide objective basis for comparative analysis of storm surge cases.
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Key words:
- extratropical storm surge /
- cold-front /
- L-J objective typing /
- circulation indices
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图 2 1956−2016年天津沿岸风暴潮及冷锋型风暴潮个例的逐年发生次数(a),风暴潮个例天气分型比例(b),冷锋型温带风暴潮个例逐月发生次数(c)
Fig. 2 Annual number of occurrences of storm surges and extratropical storm surges induced by cold-front along Tianjin coast in 1956−2016 (a), weather classification ratio of storm surge cases (b), monthly number of occurrences of extratropical storm surges induced by cold-front (c)
表 1 2003−2016年个例客观分类、环流指数及潮位增水信息
Tab. 1 Results of objective typing, circulation index, tide level and maximum storm surge elevation in 2003−2016
时间 分型结果 ξ V dd/(º) ug vg 最高潮位/cm 最大增水/cm 2005年10月21日05:00 AE −13.6 13 99.5 −12.9 2.2 499 108 2006年10月10日20:00 AE −10.2 8.7 68.9 −8.1 −3.1 487 100 2009年4月15日05:00 AE −30.3 16.6 88.6 −16.6 −0.4 523 185 2010年12月13日08:00 AE −28.5 15.2 71.7 −14.4 −4.8 475 130 2013年10月14日11:00 AE −16.1 13.8 68.7 −12.8 −5 477 139 2015年10月18日08:00 AE −21.3 9.8 103.8 −9.5 2.4 478 105 2015年10月24日11:00 AE −15.9 8.3 103.3 −8.1 1.9 473 112 2015年11月5日14:00 AE −19.9 16.6 105.9 −16 4.5 476 176 2003年4月17日20:00 ANE −23.8 14.9 64.8 −13.4 −6.3 466 84 2007年3月4日20:00 ANE −27.6 22.8 38.4 −14.1 −17.9 481 126 2007年9月27日02:00 ANE −18.5 6.5 27 −2.9 −5.8 481 107 2007年10月28日02:00 ANE −14.4 12.7 36.4 −7.5 −10.2 487 136 2013年8月22日14:00 ANE −9.5 1.9 53.1 −1.5 −1.1 471 51 2013年9月23日17:00 ANE −22.6 9 48 −6.7 −6 534 150 2003年10月11日08:00 E −10.5 18.4 96.1 −18.3 2 554 178 2008年12月9日23:00 E −1.7 15.8 104.6 −15.3 4 474 174 2009年2月13日05:00 E 4.8 13.1 78.5 −12.9 −2.6 528 203 2011年2月27日08:00 E −8 18 104.9 −17.3 4.6 491 186 2011年11月28日23:00 E −7.7 15.1 103.7 −14.7 3.6 476 134 2015年11月7日14:00 E −1.3 9.8 98.8 −9.7 1.5 492 161 2010年12月5日11:00 NE −10.9 16.6 41.9 −11.1 −12.4 473 144 2014年10月12日05:00 NE −13.1 14 37.9 −8.6 −11.1 483 96 2014年9月14日17:00 AN −13.9 4.3 358 0.1 −4.3 471 70 2015年10月3日05:00 AN −10.4 4.1 339.2 1.5 −3.8 494 102 2013年7月25日17:00 S −0.3 6 199.9 2 5.7 472 52 2013年8月26日17:00 S −4 7.8 190.7 1.5 7.7 481 73 2014年7月17日17:00 S −2.3 7.9 198.5 2.5 7.5 484 70 2003年11月25日08:00 SE −2.7 16.3 152.1 −7.6 14.4 504 137 2016年10月20日08:00 SE −5.7 17 146.9 −9.3 14.2 492 187 2013年7月23日11:00 NW 0.3 5.8 323.8 3.4 −4.6 473 50 2014年5月30日17:00 SW −6.9 10.1 223.2 6.9 7.4 472 89 2014年9月30日08:00 ASE −17.1 5.9 154.7 −2.5 5.3 489 109 2016年9月2日23:00 CE 6.6 1.5 97.5 −1.5 0.2 472 62 2016年8月19日17:00 UD −2 4 130.7 −3 2.6 483 65 注:ξ、V、ug、vg的单位为hPa/10º经度,增水为全天逐小时的最大增水值。 -
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