基于水温因子的太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群剩余产量模型研究

谢恩阁; 陈新军; 汪金涛; 雷林; 吴洽儿

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.12.017

基于水温因子的太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群剩余产量模型研究

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.12.017

谢恩阁^{1, 6,},
陈新军^{1, 2, 3, 4, 5},
汪金涛^{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ,},
雷林^{1, 2, 3, 4, 5},
吴洽儿^{1, 6}

1.
上海海洋大学海洋科学学院，上海 201306
2.
农业农村部大洋渔业开发重点实验室，上海 201306
3.
上海海洋大学国家远洋渔业工程技术研究中心，上海 201306
4.
大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室，上海 201306
5.
农业农村部大洋渔业资源环境科学观测实验站，上海 201306
6.
中国水产科学研究院南海水产研究所，广东广州 510300

基金项目: 自然资源卫星遥感业务支持服务体系项目（201901004）；国家自然科学青年基金（NFSC31702343，NSFC41876141）。

详细信息

作者简介:
谢恩阁（1993—），女，河南省信阳市人，主要从事渔业资源研究。E-mail：228638492@qq.com

通讯作者:
汪金涛，博士，渔业资源学。E-mail：jtwang@shou.edu.cn

中图分类号: S931.4
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-05-22
- 修回日期: 2019-01-28
- 网络出版日期: 2021-04-21
- 刊出日期: 2019-12-25

Study on residual yield model of winter fishes of Todarodes pacificus based on water temperature factors

Xie En'ge^{1, 6
,},
Chen Xinjun^{1, 2, 3, 4, 5},
Wang Jintao^{1, 2, 3, 4, 5
, ,},
Lei Lin^{1, 2, 3, 4, 5},
Wu Qiaer^{1, 6}

1.
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China
3.
National Engineering Research Center for Oceanic Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
4.
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China
5.
Scientific Observing and Experimental Station of Oceanic Fishery Resources, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Shanghai 201306, China
6.
South China Sea Fisheries Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Fishery Sciences, Guangzhou 510300, China

摘要

摘要: 水温是影响太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群生长、繁殖、补充的重要因素之一。根据2004–2015年太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群渔业数据和其栖息地环境数据，包括1月产卵场(28°～35°N，125°～130°E)和9月索饵场(31°～38°N，128°～132°E)海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature，SST)，建立了基于SST因子的太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群体的剩余产量模型，分析SST对太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群资源量的影响，对该模型的各项指标进行验证，发现该模型的预测精度较高。结果表明：太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群当年的资源量及渔获量主要受索饵场SST影响，而产卵场SST对其当年渔获量影响不显著。由此建议在今后对产卵场SST因子是否对次年的渔获量及资源量产生影响进行研究，同时渔业管理部门也应根据每年海洋环境状况确定其最大可持续产量，并实时调整管理方案。
- 太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群 /
- 海表面温度 /
- 剩余产量模型 /
- 产卵场 /
- 索饵场
Abstract: Water temperature is one of the important factors affecting the growth, reproduction and supplement of the winter fishes of Todarodes in the Pacific. According to the fishery data of the Pacific winter Todarodes from 2004 to 2015 and its habitat environment data, including the January spawning ground (28°–35°N, 125°–130°E) and the September feeding ground (31°–38°N, 128°–132°E) sea surface temperature (SST), a surplus production model based on SST factor was established to analyze the effect of SST on the resources of the winter migrating fish population of the North Pacific Todarodes. By verifying the indicators of the model of the surplus production model, this study find that the model has higher prediction accuracy. The results show that the resources and catches of the winter fishes of Todarodes pacificus are mainly affected by the SST of the feeding ground, but the spawning ground SST has no significant effect on its catch in the current year. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen the research on whether the SST factor of the spawning ground may affect the catch and resources of the next year, and the fishery management department should also determine its maximum sustainable yield according to the state of the marine environment every year, and the management plan should be adjusted in real time.
- winterfishes of Todarodes pacificus /
- SST /
- surplus production model /
- spawning ground /
- feeding ground

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图 1 太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群产卵场和索饵场关键区域分布

Fig. 1 Distribution of key areas in the spawning and feeding grounds of the winter fishes of the Todarodes pacificus

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2004－2015年太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群渔业渔获量及1月产卵场和9月索饵场的平均SST

Fig. 2 Annual catch of the winter fishes of the Todarodes pacificus and monthly SST of January spawning ground and September feeding ground from 2004 to 2015

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 CPUE与捕捞努力量的关系

Fig. 3 Scatter plots of CPUE and fishing effort

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 CPUE残差与1月产卵场平均SST关系的散点图和拟合曲线

Fig. 4 Scatter plot and fitted quadratic curve of residual of CPUE against monthly SST of spawning field in January

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 CPUE残差与9月索饵场平均SST关系的散点图和拟合曲线

Fig. 5 Scatter plot and ground quadratic curve of residual of CPUE against monthly SST of feeding field in September

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群渔业渔获量的观测值与预测值

Fig. 6 Observed and predicted annual catches of the winter fishes of Todarodes pacificus

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2004–2015年太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群渔业资源统计数据（渔获量和捕捞努力量）及1月产卵场和9月索饵场的平均SST

Tab. 1 Summary of catch effort and CPUE data of Todarodes pacificus winter fish and monthly SST of January and September from 2004 to 2015

年份	渔获量/万t			CPUE/t·网次⁻¹	捕捞努力量/网次	1月SST/℃	9月SST/℃
年份	日本	韩国	总计	CPUE/t·网次⁻¹	捕捞努力量/网次	1月SST/℃	9月SST/℃
2004	142 837	70 773	213 610	1.18	181 025	18.53	25.58
2005	117 196	68 174	185 370	1.07	173 242	18.82	25.52
2006	89 025	77 021	166 046	0.83	200 055	17.69	25.31
2007	188 312	78 287	266 599	1.68	158 689	18.67	26.83
2008	138 713	66 756	205 468	1.59	129 225	18.99	26.24
2009	139 825	73 301	213 126	1.60	133 203	18.49	25.55
2010	145 301	75 922	221 223	1.23	179 856	18.23	26.95
2011	185 849	103 703	289 552	1.55	186 807	18.13	26.09
2012	110 869	71 145	182 014	1.24	146 785	18.52	25.50
2013	140 011	87 761	227 772	1.23	185 180	17.83	26.55
2014	134 218	82 763	216 981	1.15	188 679	18.21	25.78
2015	96 894	86 451	183 344	0.81	226 350	17.74	24.74

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 关键海区SST与CPUE相关系数与显著分析的结果

Tab. 2 Correlation coefficient and significance analysis results between SST at the key sea area and the CPUE

位置	月份	相关系数r	显著性p
28°～35°N，125°～130°E	1月	0.603	0.038
28.5°～30.5°N，127.5°～128.5°E	2月	0.576	0.048
31°～38°N，128°～132°E	9月	0.609	0.036
33.5°～34.5°N，130.5°～131.5°E	10月	0.542	0.045

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 基于索饵场SST因子的太平洋褶柔鱼冬生群剩余产量模型的验证结果

Tab. 3 The verification result of the surplus production model of the winter fishes of Todarodes pacificus based on the SST factor of the feeding ground

相对误差平均值/%	相关系数r	显著性p
10.17	0.651	0.029

下载: 导出CSV

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