1949–2017年南海海域热带气旋强度和路径快速变化统计特征

廖菲; 李文婷; 张子然; 苏冉; 齐彦斌

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.09.012

1949–2017年南海海域热带气旋强度和路径快速变化统计特征

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.09.012

廖菲^1,,
李文婷²,
张子然³,
苏冉¹,
齐彦斌^{4, 5}

1.
广州市气象台，广东广州 511430
2.
中国科学院大学经济与管理学院，北京 100190
3.
广东省清远市气象局，广东清远 511515
4.
中国气象局/吉林省人民政府人工影响天气联合开放实验室，吉林长春 130062
5.
吉林省人工影响天气办公室，吉林长春 130062

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（41305029，41775140）；广州市科技计划项目（201604020069，201607020043）；广东省气象局科研项目（GRMC2017Q12）。

详细信息

作者简介:
廖菲（1979—），男，江西省赣州市人，博士，主要从事海洋气象观测研究。E-mail: lf_jxgz@tom.com

中图分类号: P444
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-07-30
- 修回日期: 2018-10-31
- 网络出版日期: 2021-04-21
- 刊出日期: 2019-09-25

Analysis of rapid changes of tropical cyclones over the South China Sea for 1949–2017

1.
Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 511430, China
2.
School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
3.
Qingyuan Meteorological Service, Qingyuan 511515, China
4.
Joint Open Laboratory for Weather Modification of China Meteorological Administration/People’s Government of Jilin Province, Changchun 130062, China
5.
Jilin Weather Modification Office, Changchun 130062, China

摘要

摘要: 为进一步认识南海地区热带气旋强度和路径快速变化的统计特征，利用中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的1949–2017年的热带气旋最佳路径数据集，统计分析了不同强度等级热带气旋发生强度和路径快速变化的特征。结果表明：(1)由强热带风暴快速加强为台风、以及由台风快速加强为强台风是热带气旋强度快速加强发生频率最多的事件；强度快速加强次数以1次居多，一般不会超过2次；但大部分途经南海的热带气旋出现快速加强时都在南海以外的地区，在南海出现快速加强的概率仅为9.8%。(2)不同强度的热带气旋，其强度的维持时间长短对其强度快速加强有重要影响，一般在该强度的前24 h是快速加强的最佳阶段，当其中心气压下降速度超过−12.0 hPa/(6 h)时容易出现台风级别或以上的强度快速加强，且热带气旋快速加强容易出现在海温偏高地区。(3)南海地区热带气旋路径的偏转主要出现在西行路径中，其中以5°～30°的偏转为最常见，占到全部热带气旋总数的48.65%，不过，按照定义的路径快速转向标准，路径快速转向的概率仅有15.13%。随着热带气旋强度的增强，南海地区发生路径快速转向的频次迅速减少，路径快速转向主要出现在近海岸地区和南海中北部偏东区域。这些结果进一步细化和丰富了对南海地区热带气旋强度和路径快速变化的认识。
- 热带气旋 /
- 强度 /
- 路径 /
- 快速变化 /
- 南海
Abstract: The statistical characteristics of rapid changes of different grade tropical cyclone intensity and path in the South China Sea are analyzed by the best track data set of tropical cyclones for 69 years from 1949 to 2017 compiled by Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administrator. The results show that: (1) The change from a severe tropical storm to a typhoon, and from a typhoon to a severe typhoon, are the most frequent events of rapid intensity changes. Most tropical cyclones experience intensity change no more than twice. However, most of the rapid intensifying tropical cyclones occur mainly outside the South China Sea in the western Pacific, and the probability of rapid intensifying over the South China Sea is only 9.8%. (2) The duration of intensity maintenance has an important effect on rapid intensity changes for different grade tropical cyclones. It is the highest rapid change stage during the first 24 hours. Rapid intensity change to typhoon or above grade is easily to occur when the decreasing velocity of central pressure exceeds –12.0 hPa/(6 h). Moreover, the rapid intensifying of tropical cyclones is easily to occur in areas with high sea surface temperature. (3) The deflection of the tropical cyclone path in the South China Sea is mainly in the westbound path, in which the deflection of 5°–30° is the most common, accounting for 48.65% of the total number of tropical cyclones. However, According to the defined path mutation criterion, the probability of path sharp turning is only 15.13%. With the increase of tropical cyclone intensity, the frequency of path sharp turning in the South China Sea decreases rapidly, and the path sharp turning occurs mainly in the coastal area and the east-central region of the South China Sea. This work further refines and enriches the understanding of the intensity and path rapid changes of tropical cyclones in the South China Sea.
- tropical cyclones /
- intensity /
- path /
- rapid change /
- the South China Sea

HTML全文

图 1 1949–2017年南海热带气旋向其更高一级强度快速加强的发生地及次数（a–e），及2017年海温异常分布（f）

a–e分别代表热带低压、热带风暴、强热带风暴、台风、强台风

Fig. 1 Sites and frequency of tropical cyclones rapidly intensifying to upper level over the South China Sea during 1949–2017, and distribution of sea surface temperature composite anomaly in 2017 (f)

a–e represents tropical depression, tropical storm, strong tropical storm, typhoon, strong typhoon, super typhoon, respectively

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 不同强度热带气旋快速加强发生概率与强度维持时间的分布

Fig. 2 Distribution of rapid change probability of tropical cyclones intensity and its sustain time with different intensities

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 1949–2017年热带气旋路径在南海出现快速转向时的地点及次数

a–e分别代表热带低压、热带风暴、强热带风暴、台风、强台风

Fig. 3 Sites and frequencies of tropical cyclones sharp turning over the South China Sea during 1949–2017

a–e represents tropical depression, tropical storm, strong tropical storm, typhoon, strong typhoon, and super typhoon, respectively

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 南海地区的热带气旋强度快速加强的统计特征

Tab. 1 Statistical characteristics of tropical cyclone intensity rapid change over the South China Sea

快速加强次数	占全部快速加强总数的比例/%	强度跨越等级数	变化类型	西北太平洋地区总次数(a)	南海地区总次数(b)	快速加强的速度/hPa·(6 h)⁻¹	上一等级平均持续时间/h
1次	53.22	1个等级	热带低压→热带风暴	18	8	−8.76	38.9
			热带风暴→强热带风暴	66	25	−9.9	21.9
			强热带风暴→台风	148	41	−10.98	24.5
2次	30.63		台风→强台风	143	27	−12.6	26.7
			强台风→超强台风	93	7	−13.14	15.2
		2个等级	热带低压→强热带风暴	4	0	−10.74	12.7
3次及以上	16.15		热带风暴→台风	4	0	−12.78	12.7
			强热带风暴→强台风	5	0	−24	12.7
			台风→超强台风	10	1	−30.78	12.7

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 南海地区热带气旋路径偏转的统计特征

Tab. 2 Statistical characteristics of tropical cyclone sharp turning over the South China Sea

偏转角度	出现的比例/%				出现地点比例/%		转向比例/%
偏转角度	东	南	西	北	陆地	海上	左折	右折
5°<转向<30°	6.07	2.54	48.65	16.65	31.90	42.01	38.63	39.08
30°≤转向<60°	1.71	1.28	5.89	4.82	5.60	8.10	7.75	6.95
60°≤转向<90°	0.72	0.53	0.92	1.10	1.25	2.03	1.85	1.69
转向≥90°	1.43	0.60	1.04	0.74	1.29	2.52	2.93	1.12

下载: 导出CSV

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