应用Catch-MSY模型评估印度洋蓝枪鱼资源

耿喆; 朱江峰; 王扬; 戴小杰

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.08.003

应用Catch-MSY模型评估印度洋蓝枪鱼资源

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.08.003

耿喆^{1, 2,},
朱江峰^{1, 2, ,},
王扬^{1, 2},
戴小杰^{1, 2}

1.
上海海洋大学海洋科学学院，上海 201306
2.
大洋渔业资源可持续开发教育部重点实验室，上海 201306

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金（41676120）。

详细信息

作者简介:
耿喆(1993—)，男，安徽省马鞍山市人，研究方向为渔业资源评估。E-mail：gengzhe1993@sohu.com

通讯作者:
朱江峰，男，教授，主要从事渔业资源评估研究和生态学。E-mail: jfzhu@shou.edu.cn

中图分类号: S 931.1
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- 文章访问数: 565
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2018-05-25
- 修回日期: 2018-08-28
- 网络出版日期: 2021-04-21
- 刊出日期: 2019-08-25

Stock assessment for Indian Ocean blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) using Catch-MSY model

Geng Zhe^{1, 2
,},
Zhu Jiangfeng^{1, 2
, ,},
Wang Yang^{1, 2},
Dai Xiaojie^{1, 2}

1.
College of Marine Sciences, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 201306, China

摘要

摘要: Catch-MSY模型可仅依靠渔获量数据进行渔业资源评估，在数据缺乏状况下能暂时替代标准资源评估模型。本研究以印度洋蓝枪鱼(Makaira nigricans)为例，根据有、无信息的内禀增长率r和环境容纳量K的先验分布，设立15组情景进行模型灵敏度分析、资源评估和预测。结果表明，参数r和K呈强烈的负相关，而最大可持续产量(Maximum Sustainable Yield，MSY)与参数r呈正相关；数据时间序列长度对评估结果影响有限，而模型对起止年渔获量较为敏感。资源状况评估表明，印度洋蓝枪鱼资源生物量状况良好，即B₂₀₁₅/B_MSY大于1；而开发状况除其中两种情景外，均为过度捕捞，即F₂₀₁₅/F_MSY大于1。资源预测表明，为使未来10年内B/B_MSY>1的概率超过50%，需将渔获量缩减至当前渔获量的90%(13.86 kt)；考虑到该模型在数据缺乏状况下会更加保守，若将当前渔获量的100%～110%(15.40～16.94 kt)设为管理目标，则未来5年内B/B_MSY >1的概率超过50%。
- 印度洋 /
- 蓝枪鱼 /
- 渔获量模型 /
- 资源评估 /
- 管理策略
Abstract: Catch-MSY method can temporarily replace conventional stock assessment models in making management decisions for a data-limited fishery, even when only catch data are available. In this study, for the sensitivity analysis and assessment of the Indian Ocean blue marlin, we established 15 scenarios based on non-informative and informative prior distributions of the intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K. Sensitivity analysis reveals a high negative correlation between parameters r and K, and the estimated maximum sustainable yield (MSY) increases with r. Sensitivity analysis shows that the length of catch time series has less influences on the results of the assessments, but the assessments are sensitive to catch data in the first and last year. The assessment results reveal that the status of total biomass is optimal, with the ratio of B₂₀₁₅ to B_MSY higher than 1. Exception is only two scenarios, the exploitation status under the other scenarios would be overfishing, since all the ratios of F₂₀₁₅ to F_MSY would be higher than 1. Projections of future stock status show that, to attain the objective of maintaining B/B_MSY>1 with a probability of higher than 50% in the next 10 a, the catch would have to be reduced to 90% (13 860 t) of the current level. Considering that the catch-MSY method is conservative under data-limited conditions, maintaining 100% to 110% (15 400–16 940 t) of the current catch could achieve the objective of maintaining B/B_MSY >1 with a probability of higher than 50% in the next 5 a.
- Indian Ocean /
- Makaira nigricans /
- catch-only model /
- stock assessment /
- management strategy

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图 1 印度洋蓝枪鱼历史渔获量（1950－2015年）

Fig. 1 Trend of catch of blue marlin in the Indian Ocean (1950 to 2015)

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图 2 不同情景的参数先验与后验分布

Fig. 2 Prior and posterior distribution of the key parameters based on different scenarios

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图 3 不同情景下最大可持续产量估算结果

Fig. 3 Estimated maximum sustainable yield based on different scenarios

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图 4 不同时间序列下的资源评估结果

a. 相对生物量变动；b. 相对捕捞死亡系数变动

Fig. 4 Stock assessment result based on different time series

a. Time trends of relative biomass; b. time trends of relative fishing mortality

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图 5 印度洋蓝枪鱼资源状况（Kobe图）

a. S1A情景；b. S1B情景；c. S2A情景；d. S3A情景；黑色点为蒙特卡洛模拟结果，灰色点为几何平均值

Fig. 5 Kobe plots of stock status of the Indian Ocean blue marlin

a. S1A scenario; b. S1B scenario; c. S2A scenario; d. S3A scenario; black dots based on Monte Carlo simulations; grey dots based on geometric means

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表 1 参数r的经验分布

Tab. 1 Empirical distribution for parameter r

恢复力	r分布范围
强	0.600～1.500
适中	0.200～0.800
弱	0.050～0.500
很弱	0.015～0.100

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表 2 评估起止年资源比率

Tab. 2 Default values for initial and final stock status

	起止年渔获量/C_MAX	B/K
起始年	<0.5	0.50～0.90
	≥0.5	0.30～0.60
终止年	>0.5	0.30～0.70
	≤0.5	0.01～0.40

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表 3 印度洋蓝枪鱼Catch-MSY模型情景设置

Tab. 3 Scenarios of the Indian Ocean blue marlin Catch-MSY model

情景	自然死亡系数	r	K	渔获量时间序列
S1A	–	U[0，1]	ln(K)～U[ln(2×C_MAX)，ln(50×C_MAX)]	1950–2015年
S1B	–	U[0，1]	lognormal(10×C_MAX，0.4)	1950–2015年
S2A	LM(M，0.1)	2ωM	ln(K)～U[ln(2×C_MAX)，ln(50×C_MAX)]	1950–2015年
S2B	LM(M，0.1)	2ωM	lognormal(10×C_MAX，0.4)	1950–2015年
S3A	LM(1.5M，0.1)	2ωM	ln(K)～U[ln(2×C_MAX)，ln(50×C_MAX)]	1950–2015年
S3B	LM(1.5M，0.1)	2ωM	lognormal(10×C_MAX，0.4)	1950–2015年
S4A	LM(0.5M，0.1)	2ωM	ln(K)～U[ln(2×C_MAX)，ln(50×C_MAX)]	1950–2015年
S4B	LM(0.5M，0.1)	2ωM	lognormal(10×C_MAX，0.4)	1950–2015年
S5A	LM(2M，0.1)	2ωM	ln(K)～U[ln(2×C_MAX)，ln(50×C_MAX)]	1950–2015年
S5B	LM(2M，0.1)	2ωM	lognormal(10×C_MAX，0.4)	1950–2015年
S6_1960	–	U[0，1]	ln(K)～U[ln(2×C_MAX)， ln(50×C_MAX)]	1960–2015年
S6_1970	–	U[0，1]	ln(K)～U[ln(2×C_MAX)， ln(50×C_MAX)]	1970–2015年
S6_1980	–	U[0，1]	ln(K)～U[ln(2×C_MAX)， ln(50×C_MAX)]	1980–2015年
S6_1990	–	U[0，1]	ln(K)～U[ln(2×C_MAX)， ln(50×C_MAX)]	1990–2015年
S6_2000	–	U[0，1]	ln(K)～U[ln(2×C_MAX)， ln(50×C_MAX)]	2000–2016年
注：0.5M、1.5M、2M表示自然死亡系数均值（0.22 a^–1）乘以0.5、1.5、2倍；U[0，1] 表示服从0到1的均匀分布；LM(M，0.1)表示服从均值为M，标准差为0.1的对数正态分布。

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表 4 印度洋蓝枪鱼管理参考点及部分参数

Tab. 4 Management related parameters and reference points of the Indian Ocean blue marlin

参数和参考点	S1A	S1B	S2A	S2B	S3A	S3B
r/a^-1	0.32	0.32	0.38	0.38	0.57	0.56
K/kt	146.00	151.73	130.41	135.49	95.92	102.34
MSY/kt	12.07	12.14	12.48	12.82	13.70	14.31
B_MSY/kt	73.00	75.87	65.21	67.75	47.96	51.17
B₂₀₁₅/B_MSY	1.16	1.16	1.15	1.20	1.20	1.26
F_MSY/a^-1	0.18	0.17	0.21	0.21	0.34	0.33
F₂₀₁₅/F_MSY	1.11	1.11	1.08	1.01	0.93	0.84

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表 5 Kobe II管理策略矩阵决策表

Tab. 5 Decision table of Kobe II strategy matrix

参考点	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	110%	120%	130%	140%
参考点	9 240 t	10 780 t	12 320 t	13 860 t	15 400 t	16 940 t	18 480 t	20 020 t	21 560 t
B₂₀₂₀>B_MSY	84.99	81.42	76.79	70.69	62.85	53.46	43.70	33.83	24.08
F₂₀₂₀<F_MSY	82.29	72.59	59.75	43.76	26.71	10.84	0.00	0.00	0.00
B₂₀₂₅>B_MSY	86.13	79.97	70.99	58.83	43.48	27.22	11.38	3.36	1.89
F₂₀₂₅<F_MSY	83.36	72.99	58.20	39.52	19.53	2.95	0.00	0.00	0.00
B₂₀₃₀>B_MSY	86.33	78.71	67.13	51.80	33.20	14.45	0.98	0.25	0.05
F₂₀₃₀<F_MSY	83.90	72.97	57.05	36.96	16.31	1.58	0.00	0.00	0.00
B₂₀₃₅>B_MSY	86.32	77.66	64.48	47.27	26.88	7.81	0.03	0.00	0.00
F₂₀₃₅<F_MSY	84.14	72.87	56.14	35.41	14.75	1.21	0.00	0.00	0.00
注：描述B_year>B_MSY 和 F_year<F_MSY，绿色代表两个指标均大于50%，黄色代表仅有一个大于50%，红色代表均小于50%。

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