Analysis on climate characteristics of sea surface temperature extremes in coastal China seas
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摘要: 本文基于1982–2017年日再分析数据，分析了中国近海海表温度变化的极端特性、历史演变、空间格局及可能影响，并探讨了与全球变化和区域气候变率的关联性。近30多年来，中国近海海表总体升温明显，尤以春季长江口附近及以南的外部近岸海域升温最为显著，线性升温速率高达0.2°C/(10 a)。相比而言，沿岸海域对气候变暖暂缓的响应可能更为明显；极端高(低)温强度以显著增强(减弱)为主，尤以春(夏)季幅度最大。沿岸海域春季极值温差增强显著，易通过物候变化引起生物迁移和赤潮等生态灾害突发、频发；北部海域极端事件持续天数大于南部，其中，黄海、东海极端高温持续天数增加显著，可能对渔业资源产生较大影响。受气候变暖暂缓影响，极端低温持续天数亦显著增加；极端高温在长江口附近，台湾海峡和南海北部等海域累积频次上升显著，未来极端海洋热浪事件可能持续增加，将对南海珊瑚礁等产生较大影响。极端低温累积频次以显著降低为主。然而长江口及以南沿岸极端低温在冬春季增强明显，可能对红树林等产生一定影响；太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)暖位相期间，ENSO暖事件得到增强，易引起中国近海海表极端低温的频发。北极涛动(AO)正位相时，限制了极区冷空气向南扩展，中国近海海表极端高温频次趋于增加，其危险性增强。Abstract: Based on the daily reanalysis from 1982 to 2017, this paper focuses on the analysis of the extreme characteristics, historical evolution, spatial pattern and possible impactions of sea surface temperature (SST) in coastal China seas (CCS), and discusses the correlation with global change and regional climate variability. The SST in the CCS overall increased significantly in recent more than 30 years, especially in the spring near the Changjiang River Estuary and offshore areas south of it with the warming rate up to 0.2℃/(10 a). Nevertheless the response of nearshore waters to the global warming hiatus is likely to be more pronounced. The extreme high (low) temperature intensity is mainly enhanced (weakened), especially in spring (summer). The increase of extreme temperature difference in the nearshore area in spring can easily lead to frequent ecological disasters such as biological migration and red tide. The consecutive days of extreme events in the northern sea areas are longer than in the south. The consecutive days of extreme high temperature in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea increased significantly, which may have a potential impact on fishery resources. Mostly due to the global warming hiatus, the consecutive days of extreme low temperature is also increased significantly. The cumulative frequency of extreme high temperature near the Changjiang River Estuary, the Taiwan Strait and the northern part of the South China Sea (SCS) increased significantly. In the future, extreme marine heat waves are likely increase continuously, which will have a greater impact on the coral reefs in the SCS and so on. The cumulative frequency of extreme low temperature is mainly reduced. The extreme low temperature along the Changjiang River Estuary and the southern nearshore sea areas increased obviously in winter and spring, which may have some influence on mangrove. During the warm phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the ENSO warm event is enhanced, which is likely to cause the frequent occurrence of extreme low temperature in the CCS. In addition, as the Arctic oscillation (AO) is in positive phase, the cold air in the polar region is restricted to expand southward, and the frequency of extreme high temperature in the CCS surface tends to increase, which enhances the disaster risk.
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图 1 中国近海日平均海表温度气候态（1982–2011年）分布（左）及长期（1982–2017年）变化趋势 （右，圆点为超过90%显著性检验的区域）
Fig. 1 Climatic status (1982–2011) distribution (left) of daily mean sea surface temperature in coastal China seas and corresponding long-term (1982–2017) trends (right, the dots for stations with more than 90% significance)
图 2 中国近海海表极值温差气候态（1982–2011年）分布（左）及长期（1982–2017年）变化趋势（右，圆点为超过90%显著性检验的区域）
Fig. 2 Climatic status (1982–2011) distribution (left) of sea surface extreme temperature difference in the coastal China seas and corresponding long-term (1982–2017) trends (right, the dots for stations with more than 90% significance)
图 3 中国近海海表极端高温阈值统计（基准期为1982–2011年）分布（左）及极端事件强度的长期（1982–2017年）变化趋势（右，圆点为超过90%显著性检验的站点）
Fig. 3 Threshold statistics of the extremes (base period: 1982–2011) distribution (left) of sea surface extreme high temperature in the coastal China seas and long-term (1982–2017) trends of the extremes intensity (right, the dots for stations with more than 90% significance)
图 4 中国近海海表极端低温阈值气候态（基准期为1982–2011年）分布（左）及极端事件强度的长期（1982–2017年）变化趋势（右，圆点为超过90%显著性检验的站点）
Fig. 4 Threshold statistics of the extremes (base period: 1982–2011) distribution (left) of sea surface extreme low temperature in the coastal China seas and long-term (1982–2017) trends of the extremes intensity (right, the dots for stations with more than 90% significance)
图 5 中国近海海表温度极端高值年内平均（a）和最大（b）持续日数气候态（1982–2011年）分布（左图）及长期（1982–2017年）变化趋势（右图，圆点为超过90%显著性检验的站点）
Fig. 5 Climatic status (1982–2011) distribution (left) of annual mean (a) and maximum (b) consecutive days of sea surface high temperature extremes in the coastal China seas and corresponding long-term (1982–2017) trends (right, the dots for stations with more than 90% significance)
图 6 中国近海海表温度极端低值年内平均（a）和最大（b）持续日数气候态（1982–2011年）分布（左图）及长期（1982–2017年）变化趋势（右图，圆点为超过90%显著性检验的站点）
Fig. 6 Climatic status (1982–2011) distribution (left) of annual mean (a) and maximum (b) consecutive days of sea surface low temperature extremes in the coastal China seas and corresponding long-term (1982–2017) trends (right, the dots for stations with more than 90% significance)
图 7 中国近海海表温度极端高值季节内累积频次占比气候态（1982–2011年）分布（左图）及长期（1982–2017年）变化趋势（右图，圆点为超过90%显著性检验的区域）
Fig. 7 Climatic status (1982–2011) distribution (left) of seasonal fraction above extreme high temperature in the coastal China seas and corresponding long-term (1982–2017) trends (right, the dots for stations with more than 90% significance)
图 8 中国近海海表温度极端高值季节内累积频次占比气候态（1982–2011年）分布（左图）及长期（1982–2017年）变化趋势（右图，圆点为超过90%显著性检验的区域）
Fig. 8 Climatic status (1982–2011) distribution (left) of seasonal fraction above extreme low temperature in the coastal China seas and corresponding long-term (1982–2017) trends (right, the dots for stations with more than 90% significance)
图 9 中国近海海表温度极端高值（左）和极端低值（右）年内日数占比与区域气候变率的相关性分布(彩色区域超过90%的显著性检验)
a.厄尔尼诺-南方涛动；b.太平洋年代际振荡；c.北极涛动
Fig. 9 Correlation matrix between annual fraction of cumulative frequency of sea surface extreme high (left) and low (right) temperature in the coastal China seas and regional climate variabilities with significance exceeding 90%
a. ENSO; b. PDO; c. AO
图 10 全球变化下区域海洋环境要素变化的极端特性及影响示意图
Fig. 10 Schematic diagram on the climatic extremes of regional marine environmental factors and its impactions under global change
表 1 海表温度极端特性的气候指数
Tab. 1 The climatic index of extremes for sea surface temperature
极端气候事件（指标） 指数类型 指数名称 单位 海表温度 平均状况 海表温度 ℃ 海表温度较差（极值温差） 极端特性（强度） 第90%百分位海表温度（极端高阈值） 高于第90%百分位海表温度均值（强度） 第10%百分位为海表温度（极端低阈值） 低于第10%百分位海表温度均值（强度） 极端特性（持续性） 高于极端高阈值的平均持续日数 日数 高于极端高阈值的最大持续日数 低于极端低阈值的平均持续日数 低于极端低阈值的最大持续日数 极端特性（累计频次） 极端高海温日数的占比 % 极端低海温日数的占比 
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