新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

雷小途; 李永平; 于润玲; 李泓; 汤杰; 段自强; 郑运霞; 方平治; 赵兵科; 曾智华; 黄伟; 鲍旭炜; 喻自凤; 陈国民; 马雷鸣; 骆婧瑶; 张帅; 林立旻

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.06.012

新一代区域海-气-浪耦合台风预报系统

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2019.06.012

1.
中国气象局上海台风研究所, 上海 200030;上海市气象局, 上海 200030
2.
中国气象局上海台风研究所, 上海 200030

基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2018YFC1506400）；海洋国际合作项目（IPOVAI-04-05）；国家973计划项目（2013CB430305）。

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-01-23
- 修回日期: 2019-05-15

A new generation of regional air-sea-wave coupled typhoon prediction system

1.
Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China;Shanghai Meteorological Service, Shanghai 200030, China
2.
Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration, Shanghai 200030, China

摘要

摘要: 依托国家重点基础研究（973）计划项目"上层海洋对台风的响应和调制机理研究"，中国气象局上海台风研究所联合国家海洋局的相关单位，通过实施近海台风的外场观测科学试验、加强台风边界层（特别是海气相互作用）物理过程诊断分析及参数化方案等的研究，建立并改进了台风强度预报的海-气-浪耦合预报模式系统，并在此基础上发展了台风强度的集合预报技术，在历史典型台风个例和2016-2017年台汛期的业务化测试中表现出良好的预报性能。
- 台风 /
- 强度预报 /
- 海-气-浪耦合
Abstract: Based on the National Key Basic Research (973) project, the response and modulation of the upper ocean to typhoon, an air-sea-wave coupling model system for typhoon intensity prediction was established by Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration cooperating with some of units belong to the National Oceanic Administration. This system shows good performance for the historical typhoon cases simulation and prediction during the typhoon seasons in 2016 and 2017. The key measures and achievements include the implementation of field observation scientific experiments of typhoon over the sea and coastal area, observational study of the air-sea interaction and improvement of the parameterization scheme in the boundary layer of model. Also the ensemble prediction technique of typhoon intensity is developed on this basis.
- typhoon /
- intensity prediction /
- air-sea-wave coupling

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参考文献(28)

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