热带气旋资料长度对风暴潮危险性评估结果的影响

刘永玲; 冯建龙; 江文胜; 方伟华

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.03.006

热带气旋资料长度对风暴潮危险性评估结果的影响

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.03.006

1.
中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院, 山东青岛 266100
2.
中国海洋大学海洋环境与生态教育部重点实验室, 山东青岛 266100
3.
北京师范大学民政部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京 100875

基金项目: 海洋公益性行业科研专项(201305020-4)。

计量
- 文章访问数: 1259
- HTML全文浏览量: 30
- PDF下载量: 596
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-01-09
- 修回日期: 2015-04-01

Effects of a tropical cyclone data sets length on the result of risk assessment of storm surge

1.
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
3.
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

摘要

摘要: 热带气旋历史样本数不足一直困扰着风暴潮风险评估研究,本文基于西北太平洋62 a(1949-2010年)历史观测热带气旋事件集资料和用随机模拟方法构造的1000 a模拟热带气旋随机事件集,以福建省连江县为例,开展了资料长度对风暴潮灾害危险性评估结果的影响分析。文中用ADCIRC模型模拟了两种数据集强迫下的风暴潮增水,采用极值Ⅰ型分布法得到了典型重现期的风暴潮增水,经过对计算结果分析发现典型重现期的风暴潮增水计算结果与所用数据资料长度有着密切相关性,数据资料越长,结果越稳定。对于1000 a一遇的风暴潮增水值,使用500 a长度的资料已经趋于稳定,并接近用1000 a资料计算得到的结果。在进行风暴潮危险性评估时,相比用几十年尺度的热带气旋历史数据集,1000 a的热带气旋模拟数据集的计算结果更具实际意义。
- 风暴潮 /
- 热带气旋随机事件集 /
- 危险性研究 /
- 重现期
Abstract: The reasonable storm surge risk assessment is always limited by the number of the historical Tropical Cyclone (TC) samples. In this paper the influence of the data set length to the storm surge risk assessment result is studied in Lianjiang County of Fujian Province,which is based on the historical TC observations (1949-2010) and stochastic TC events (1 000 a). The two datasets were applied to force the ADCIRC model to simulate storm surges,which is used to determine the surge heights of typical return periods with the method of extreme value type I. The experiment result indicates that the surge heights of typical return periods have a close correlation with data sets length,i.e.,the longer the data sets length,the more stable of the results. As for the surge heights of 1 000 years return period,the results from 500 a length data sets can give a rather stable result,which is close to the results generated from the 1 000 a length data set. When carrying out storm surges hazards analysis,the results are more reasonable by using TC stochastic events in 1 000 years than those from historical TC events in decades of years.
- storm surge /
- Tropical Cyclone stochastic events /
- hazards analysis /
- return period

HTML全文

参考文献(24)

王喜年. 全球海洋的风暴潮灾害概况[J]. 海洋预报,1993,10(1):30-36. Wang Xinian. The storm surge disaster situation of global ocean[J]. Marine Forecasts,1993,10(1):30-36.

国家海洋局. 中国海洋灾害与减灾[J]. 中国减灾,2000,10(4):13-17. State Oceanic Administration People's Republic of China. China ocean disasters and disaster reduction[J]. Disaster Reduction in China,2000,10(4):13-17.

国家海洋局.中国年海洋灾害公报(1989-2013)[EB/OL].http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghyzhgb/index.html,2014-03-19. State Oceanic Administration People's Republic of China. China's marine disasters communique(1989-2013)[EB/OL].http://www.soa.gov.cn/zwgk/hygb/zghyzhgb/index.html,2014-03-19.

乐肯堂. 我国风暴潮灾害风险评估方法的基本问题[J].海洋预报,1998,15(3):38-44. Le Kentang. The fundamental problem of the storm surge risk assessment method in our country[J]. Marine Forecasts,1998,15(3):38-44.

赵庆良,许世远,王军,等. 沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究进展[J]. 地理科学进展,2007,26(5):32-40. Zhao Qingliang,Xu Shiyuan,Wang Jun,et al. A review of risk assessment of storm surge on coastal cities[J]. Progress in Geography,2007,26(5):32-40.

石先武,谭骏,国志兴,等. 风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展,2013,28(8):866-874. Shi Xianwu,Tan Jun,Guo Zhixing,et al.A review of risk assessment of storm surge disaster[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2013,28(8):866-874.

李阔,李国胜. 风暴潮风险研究进展[J]. 自然灾害学报,2011,20(6):104-111. Li Kuo,Li Guosheng. Progress in research on risk of storm surge[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(6):104-111.

董剑希,仉天宇,付祥,等. 福建省沙埕港百年一遇台风风暴潮的计算[J]. 海洋通报,2008,27(1):9-16. Dong Jianxi,Zhang Tianyu,Fu Xiang,et al. Calculation of the storm surges in the Shacheng Bay in Fujian Province in 100 years return periods[J]. Marine Science Bulletin,2008,27(1):9-16.

Vickery P J,Skerlj P F,Twisdale L A. Simulation of hurricane risk in the US using empirical track model[J]. Journal of Structural Engineering,2000,126(10):1222-1237.

Hashimoto N,Satoh H,Matsuura K,et al. Modeling of Probable Typhoon and Its Statistic Properties[C]//Proceedings of Coastal Engineering,Japan Society of Civil Engineers.2001:456-460.

Rumpf J,Weindl H,Höppe P,et al. Tropical cyclone hazard assessment using model-based track simulation[J]. Natural Hazards,2009,48(3):383-398.

Lin N,Emanuel K A,Smith J A,et al. Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York City[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres (1984-2012),2010,115(D18):D18121.

Torii K,Kato F. Risk assessment on storm surge flood[C]//Proceedings of the 2nd Workshop on the Development of Integrated Disaster Reduction Systems on Compound Urban Flooding. 2003:20-31.

方伟华,石先武. 面向灾害风险评估的热带气旋路径及强度随机模拟综述[J]. 地球科学进展,2012,27(8):866-875. Fang Weihua,Shi Xianwu. Review on stochastic modeling of tropical cyclone track and intensity for disaster risk assessment[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2012,27(8):866-875.

方伟华,林伟. 面向灾害风险评估的台风风场模型研究综述[J]. 地理科学进展,2013,32(6):852-867. Fang Weihua,Lin Wei. A review on typhoon wind field modeling for disaster risk assessment[J]. Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):852-867.

石先武. 西北太平洋热带气旋时空特征分析及随机模拟[D]. 北京:北京师范大学,2012. Shi Xianwu. Spatiotemporal characteristics and stochastic modeling of tropical cyclone track and intensity in NWP basin[D]. Beijing:Beijing Normal University,2012.

Atkinson G D,Holliday C R. Tropical cyclone minimum sea-level pressure-maximum sustained wind relationship for western north pacific[J].Mon weather Rev,1977,105(4):421-427.

Luettich Jr R A,Westerink J J,Scheffner N W. ADCIRC:An advanced three-dimensional circulation model for shelves,coasts,and estuaries, report 1. theory and methodology of ADCIRC-2DDI and ADCIRC-3DL[R]//Coastal Engineering Research Center Vicksburg MS.Vicksburg:US Army Engineers Waterwags Experiment Station,1992:137.

Jelesnianski C P. Numerical computations of storm surges without bottom stress[J]. Monthly Weather Review,1966,94(6):379-394.

Jelesnianski C P. A numerical calculation of storm tides induced by a tropical storm impinging on a continental shelf[J]. Mon Weather Rev,1965,93(6):343-358.

王喜年. 风暴潮预报知识讲座——第五讲风暴潮预报技术(2)[J]. 海洋预报,2002,19(2):64-70. Wang Xinian. Storm surge forecast knowledge lectures-the fifth lecture storm surge forecast technology(2)[J]. Marine Forecasts,2002,19(2):64-70.

黄浩辉,宋丽莉,植石群,等. 广东省风速极值Ⅰ型分布参数估计方法的比较[J]. 气象,2007,33(3):101-106. Huang Haohui,Song Lili,Zhi Shiqun,et al. Comparision of estimation of wind speed extreme-I distribution parameters in Guangdong Province[J]. Meteorological Monthly,2007,33(3):101-106.

JTS 145-2-2013. 海港水文规范[S].北京:中华人民共和国交通运输部,2013. JTS 145-2-2013. Code of Hydrplogy for Sea Harbour[S].Beijing:Ministry of Transport of the People's Republic of China,2013.

罗良清,魏和清.统计学[M]. 北京:中国财政经济出版社,2011:49. Luo Liangqing,Wei Heqing. Statics[M]. Beijing:Chinese Financial & Economic Publishing House,2011:49.

施引文献

资源附件(0)

访问统计