秋季巴伦支海海温异常对冬季我国渤海冰情的可能影响

周群; 魏立新; 黄焕卿

doi:10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.03.004

秋季巴伦支海海温异常对冬季我国渤海冰情的可能影响

doi: 10.3969/j.issn.0253-4193.2016.03.004

国家海洋环境预报中心, 北京 100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(41206186);海洋国际合作及履约《中芬海冰与北极气候变化合作研究》;极地专项《南极周边海域气象环境综合分析与评价》(CHINAER2013-04-01)。

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-01-21
- 修回日期: 2015-09-01

Possible effect of SSTa in the Barents Sea in fall on the variations of Bohai Sea ice in the following winter

National Center for Marine Environment Forecast, Beijing 100081, China

摘要

摘要: 本文利用美国NCEP/NCAR逐月的再分析资料、HadISST海温、中国160台站气温和反映渤海冰情轻重的渤海冰情等级资料,研究了前秋巴伦支海海温异常对后期渤海冰情和东亚冬季风的影响,并对相关的物理过程进行分析。结果表明,前秋巴伦支海关键区海温与该区域海冰密集度呈显著的负相关,且具有较好的持续性,通过调节随后冬季向大气释放的热通量,引起后期环流变化。偏高(偏低)年冬季亚洲纬向环流偏弱(偏强),东亚大槽加深(减弱),东亚冬季风加强(减弱),我国东北、华北及西北地区地区显著偏冷(偏暖),这与冬季渤海海冰异常的强度和范围都偏大(小)及与之相联系的环流异常相一致。进一步的分析揭示了联系上游关键区海温变化与后期东亚地区气候异常的重要途径,前秋巴伦支海海温偏高会导致200 hPa高度场形成一个自西向东的波列形式,在东亚局地Hadley环流异常的作用下,加强了我国北方地区地表的北风异常。因此,前秋巴伦支海海温异常可以作为冬季渤海冰情的预报因子。
- 海温异常 /
- 渤海海冰 /
- 大气环流异常 /
- 短期气候预测
Abstract: By using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the SST,the air temperature of 160 Chinese stations and the ice grade for Bohai Sea which indicates the ice conditions in Bohai Sea,the impacts of Barents Sea SST anomalies on the variations of the ice condition in Bohai Sea during the later period are investigated in this paper. The results indicate that the variation of the fall SST in the key region is negatively correlated to the sea-ice concentration from the preceding winter to the next summer,leading to the variations of the turbulent heat flux during the winter. During the warmer (colder) Barents Sea years,the Asian zonal circulations are evidently weakened (strengthened) accompanied by a deeper (reduced) East Asian trough and the East Asian Winter Monsoon is significantly stronger (weaker) accompany with much lower (higher) observed temperature anomalies in north China. These characteristics consistent with the increase (decrease) of the intensity and scope of the Bohai Sea Ice anomalies and the related circulation differences in the winter. Further investigation seems to suggest that in the 200 hPa wind field there is an apparent wave train from west to east related to the Barents Sea SST index and the wave train is an important way conveying the impact of the Barents Sea SST anomalies in the upstream to the East Asian area. Moreover,the circulation anomalies in the lower troposphere can be attributed to the variations of the local Hadley circulation. Therefore,the Barents Sea SST anomalies of the fall can be used as a predictor of the ice conditions in the Bohai Sea during the following winter.
- SST anomalies /
- Bohai Sea ice /
- atmospheric circulation anomalies /
- short-term climate prediction

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