The sea level change of Sansha seas
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摘要: 使用1993-2011年的台站和卫星高度计资料详细分析了三沙市海域近19 a的海平面变化特征及规律。结果表明:三沙市周边海域海平面存在明显的季节变化,且区域特征明显。海平面变化除了明显的年和半年周期,2~3 a、4~7 a和准9 a的周期也较显著。海平面长期变化呈现明显的波动上升趋势,且空间分布上区域特征显著,西沙群岛南部海域海平面上升趋势最强,西沙群岛北部与中沙群岛西部次之,南沙群岛东部海平面上升速率较快,南沙群岛西部上升趋势最弱。受大气环流等异常气候事件的影响,1998年和2010年海平面的年际变化波动较大,年变化振幅显著偏高。未来三沙市海平面将继续上升,预计2030年、2050年、2070年和2100年海平面将比常年分别升高约11 cm、20 cm、30 cm和45 cm。Abstract: Based on the 19 years sea surface height(SSH) of tide gauge stations and satellite altimeter, the seasonal variation and the long term trend of SSH in the Sansha seas are investigated. The results show that the sea level takes on significant seasonal variation and regional characteristics in the Sansha seas. The SSH also shows prominent inter-annual variation besides the seasonal variation. The prominent terms are 2~3 a, 4~7 a and quasi-9 a. According to 19 a SSH data in the Sansha seas, the SSH shows obvious increasing trend, the average rising rate is 4.9 mm/a, the increasing range in the south of Paracel Islands is the most, the weakest in the western of Nansha Islands. Affected by abnormal atmospheric circulation and other climate events, fluctuations in the inter-annual variability of the sea level in 1998 and 2010. According to the analyzing results of the sea level forecasting model, it is predicted that in the coming 20 a, 40 a, 60 a and 90 a, sea level of Sansha seas will rise by 11 cm, 20 cm, 30 cm and 45 cm in comparison with the multi-year average.
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Key words:
- Sansha seas /
- seasonal sea level /
- inter-annual /
- increasing trend /
- prediction
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