Statistical analysis of the characteristics of freak wave elements in the northwest South China Sea
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摘要: 基于实测波浪资料，结合随机波浪理论和JONSWAP谱，研究了南海西北部海域畸形波的发生概率；并通过浮标观测数据对该海域的畸形波个数和波浪要素进行了特征统计分析，同时探讨了有效波高与周期、风速等主要参数的关联特性。结果表明：南海西北部海域畸形波的发生概率为
0.0059 %。分析该海域不同季节中有效波陡$ \delta $ 的特征分布情况，发现该海域在春季过渡时期和西南季风时期的波浪中涌浪出现频率相对较高，这可能是这两个季节畸形波发生概率相对较高的原因之一。对于全年分布的特征，有效波高与平均周期的相关性相对较高，而畸形波基本无相关性。全年有效波高与风速的相关系数为0.83，畸形波的相关系数为0.63，表明波浪的全年分布情况受风浪影响较大，而风浪、涌浪混合区中涌浪所占相对比例可能对畸形波的生成有一定的影响。Abstract: Based on actual wave measurement data, combined with stochastic wave theory and the JONSWAP spectrum, the probability of freak waves in the northwest part of the South China Sea was conducted. The characteristics of the number of freak waves and wave elements in the sea area were statistically analyzed by the buoy observation data, and the correlation characteristics between the effective wave height and the main parameters such as period and wind speed were explored. The results indicate that the occurrence probability of freak waves in the northwestern South China Sea is0.0059 %. Analyzing the distribution of the significant wave steepness δ in different seasons of this area, it was found that the frequency of swells in the waves is relatively high during the spring transition period and the southwest monsoon season, which may be one of the reasons for the relatively high probability of freak wave occurrences in these two seasons. Regarding the annual distribution characteristics, there is a high correlation between significant wave height and mean period, while freak waves show virtually no correlation. The correlation coefficient between annual significant wave height and wind speed is 0.83, and for freak waves, it is 0.63, indicating that the annual distribution of waves is greatly influenced by wind waves. The relative proportion of swells in the mixed zone of wind waves and swells may have a certain impact on the generation of freak waves.-
Key words:
- Northwest South China Sea /
- freak wave /
- wave elements /
- characteristic analysis /
- correlation analysis
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图 3 各特征波高线性关系拟合
Fig. 3 Fitting of linear relationships for characteristic wave heights
图 4 各特征波周期线性关系拟合
Fig. 4 Fitting of linear relationships for characteristic wave periods
图 6 2020年南海西北部有效波高-平均周期散点分布
Fig. 6 Scatter distribution of significant wave height and mean period in the northwestern South China Sea in 2020
图 7 畸形波有效波高-平均周期散点分布
Fig. 7 Scatter distribution of significant wave height and mean period for freak waves
图 9 畸形波所在各序列的风速和有效波高
Fig. 9 The wind speed and significant wave height in each sequence where freak waves occur
表 1 各特征波高之间的关系
Tab. 1 The relationship between various characteristic wave heights
特征波高比 变化范围 线性回归系数 标准差 深水Rayleigh分布值 $ {\mathit{H}}_{\mathit{s}} $/$ {\mathit{H}}_{\mathit{m}} $ 1.000～2.000 1.582 0.007 1.598 $ {\mathit{H}}_{1/10} $/$ {\mathit{H}}_{\mathit{m}} $ 1.333～3.000 1.837 0.106 2.032 $ {\mathit{H}}_{\mathit{m}\mathit{a}\mathit{x}} $/$ {\mathit{H}}_{\mathit{m}} $ 1.500～4.000 2.187 0.181 _____ 
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表 2 各特征波周期之间的关系
Tab. 2 The relationship between various characteristic wave periods
特征波周期比 变化范围 线性回归系数 标准差 合田建议值 $ {\mathit{T}}_{\mathit{s}} $/$ {\mathit{T}}_{\mathit{m}} $ 0.864～1.439 1.398 0.229 1.1～1.3 $ {\mathit{T}}_{1/10} $/$ {\mathit{T}}_{\mathit{m}} $ 0.875～1.652 1.451 0.312 1.1～1.3 $ {\mathit{T}}_{\mathit{m}\mathit{a}\mathit{x}} $/$ {\mathit{T}}_{\mathit{m}} $ 0.604～2.623 1.429 0.604 1.1～1.3
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表 3 各季节浪型出现频率
Tab. 3 The frequency of wave patterns in each season
春季过渡时期 西南季风时期 秋季过渡时期 东北季风时期 风浪/% 35.32 20.59 89.80 51.50 未成熟涌浪/% 54.70 66.36 9.34 46.16 成熟涌浪/% 9.98 13.15 0.86 2.34
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