The development and evolution of the coastline of the Qingshuigou sub-delta in the Huanghe River under the background of reduced sediment discharge into the sea
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摘要: 三角洲岸线的变迁是研究地貌冲淤最直接的要素。黄河三角洲是世界上发育最快的三角洲，研究其海岸线变化规律和演化趋势对地区生态环境保护、海洋资源开发、基础设施建设等至关重要。本文在前人研究的基础上，采用修正归一化水体指数（Modified Normalized Difference Water Index, MNDWI）与多年水频率指数（Multi-year Water Frequency Index, MWFI）相结合的方法对1976–2021年期间典型年份的207幅遥感影像进行岸线提取，使获取到的海岸线更具科学性和代表性，并在此基础上通过定量计算分析了海岸线的时空演变及其稳定性特征，以此探讨黄河清水沟亚三角洲海岸线自1976年以来的演化机制。研究结果表明：（1）总体上，清水沟亚三角洲海岸线演化呈现先快速向海淤积后波动稳定的趋势，以1996年和2002年为节点划分为“快速发育” “缓慢发育” “动态平衡”3个阶段；（2）45年来，研究区海岸线稳定性持续增强，其中孤东海堤段岸线与黄河清水沟亚三角洲南部岸线保持相对稳定，而清8汊河口段岸线与清水沟废弃河口段岸线较为活跃，其岸线稳定性指数基本低于0.5；（3）陆上三角洲淤积、侵蚀中心的迁移同河口位置变动相对应，尤其是淤积中心的迁移与河口位置变动之间在经度向存在明显的正向关系，R2 = 0.690 4；（4）黄河入海泥沙减少、河口位置迁移以及人类活动对三角洲海岸线的发育演化影响显著。从长远来看，在黄河入海泥沙持续减少的背景下，三角洲的未来仍面临侵蚀的威胁。Abstract: The shoreline change is the most direct factor in studying landform erosion and deposition. The Huanghe River Delta is the world’s fastest-growing delta, and understanding its coastline changes and evolution trends is crucial to regional ecological environment protection, marine resource development, and infrastructure construction. In this study, we combined modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI) and multi-year water frequency index (MWFI) to analyze water quality in typical years from 1976 to 2021, based on previous research. We visually interpreted 207 remote sensing images to obtain an annual coastline that makes the obtained coastline more scientific and representative. We then analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution and stability characteristics of the coastline through quantitative calculations to explore the Qingshuigou sub-delta coastline of the Yellow River’s evolution mechanism since 1976. Our main findings are as follows: (1) In general, the evolution of Qingshuigou sub-delta coastline shows a trend of rapid sedimentation towards the sea, followed by fluctuations and stability. We can divide it into “rapid development” and “slow development,” with the “dynamic equilibrium” in between, taking 1996 and 2002 as nodes. (2) Over the past 45 years, the stability of the coastline in the study area has continued to increase. The coastline of the section of the coastline and the abandoned estuary section of Qingshuigou is relatively active, and its coastline stability index is generally lower than 0.5. (3) The migration of the sedimentation and erosion center of the land delta corresponds to the estuary location’s change, especially the migration of the sedimentation center, which has a positive relationship in the longitude direction between the change of the estuary position and the position of the estuary, R2 = 0.690 4. (4) The Huanghe River’s sediment reduction into the sea, the relocation of the estuary position, and human activities have a significant impact on the delta coastline’s development and evolution. In the long run, the Huanghe River’s silt into the sea is still continuously reducing, and the future of the delta is still facing the threat of erosion.
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图 3 年度水陆分类图制作流程（以2021年为例）
Fig. 3 Flowchart for making annual water and land classification map (taking 2021 as example)
图 4 1976–2021年海岸线（a）与数字岸线分析参数说明（b）（a中红框为图b位置）
Fig. 4 Coastline map from 1976 to 2021 (a) and digital shoreline analysis parameter description (b) (the red box in a is the position of b)
图 5 累计岸线变化长度与三角洲变化面积（a），不同岸段岸线长度变化与三角洲面积变化（b），三角洲变化面积与岸线变化长度的相关性（c）
Fig. 5 Cumulative changes of coastline length and delta area (a), changes of coastline length and delta area in different coastal segments (b), correlation between changes of delta area and coastline length (c)
图 6 1976–2021年研究区海岸线移动距离（NSM）与岸线侵蚀速率（LRR）折线图（a）及NSM与LRR关系（b）
Fig. 6 Line chart of net shoreline movement (NSM) and littoral recession rate (LRR) in the study area from 1976 to 2021 (a), and the relationship between NSM and LRR (b)
图 7 各岸段不同时期净海岸线移动距离（NSM）折线图
Fig. 7 Net shoreline movement (NSM) of each coastal segment in different periods
图 8 1976–2021年不同岸段岸线变化距离（SCE）空间分布（a），不同时期各岸段SCE折线图（b），不同岸段不同时期岸线稳定性指数（E）变化（c）
Fig. 8 The spatial distribution of shoreline change envelope (SCE) in different coastal segments from 1976 to 2021 (a), the SCE line of each coastal segment in different periods (b), and coastline stability index (E) variation chart (c)
图 9 陆上三角洲淤积中心（a）与侵蚀中心（b）的空间分布及变迁
背景为不同时期陆上三角洲变化面积，箭头表示淤积/侵蚀中心的迁移
Fig. 9 Spatial distribution and change of onshore delta deposition center (a) and erosion center (b)
The background is the changing area of onshore delta in different periods and the arrows in the figure represent the migration of the deposition/erosion center
图 10 各时期年均输沙量同岸线长度变化的关系（a），同面积变化的关系（b），同平均净岸线移动距离（NSM）的关系（c），同平均海岸线变化距离（SCE）的关系（d）
Fig. 10 The relationship between the average annual sediment load and the change of shoreline length in each period (a), the relationship with the area change (b), the relationship with the average net shoreline movement (NSM , c), and the relationship with the average shoreline change envelope (SCE, d)
图 11 利津水文站1976–2021年年径流量和年输沙量变化
Fig. 11 Changes in annual runoff and annual sediment load at Lijin Hydrological Station from 1976 to 2021
图 12 河口位置变迁距离与淤积中心经度向（a）和纬度向（b）变迁距离的关系
Fig. 12 The relationship between the change distance of the estuary position and the longitude (a) and latitude (b) change distance of the siltation center
图 13 不同时期海岸线变化距离（SCE）距河口位置远近变化
Fig. 13 Changes in the distance between shoreline change envelope (SCE) and the mouth of the river in different periods
表 1 海岸线稳定性分区划分标准
Tab. 1 Division criteria of coastline stability zoning
分类标准 极稳定区 稳定区 较活跃区 活跃区 极活跃区 SCE/m 0～100 100～500 500～1 000 1 000～2 000 > 2 000 
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表 2 不同岸段不同时期岸线移动距离及其变化率
Tab. 2 The coastline movement distance and its change rate of different coast segments in different periods
研究区域 时间 平均移动距离/m 最大移动距离/m 最小移动距离/m 平均变化率/(m·a–1) 最大变化率/(m·a–1) 最小变化率/(m·a–1) 总研究区 1976–2021年 4 699.66 19 237.13 15.08 104.44 427.49 0.34 1976–1986年 3 407.41 16 921.08 2.94 340.74 1 692.11 0.29 1986–1996年 983.72 14 122.78 0 98.37 1 412.28 0 1996–2002年 215.14 5 540.83 0 35.86 923.47 0 2002–2006年 –210.40 8 464.43 0 –52.60 2 116.11 0 2006–2008年 118.94 4 948.06 0 59.47 2 474.03 0 2008–2014年 –133.85 10 476.48 0 –22.31 1 746.08 0 2014–2016年 –215.34 1 074.34 0 –107.67 537.17 0 2016–2021年 361.57 4 625.49 0 72.31 925.10 0 孤东海堤段 1986–1996年 52.06 887.50 0 5.21 88.75 0 1996–2002年 0.88 30.32 0 0.15 5.05 0 2002–2006年 –0.44 16.60 0 -0.11 4.15 0 2006–2008年 0.95 180.13 0 0.47 90.07 0 2008–2014年 –2.51 17.26 0 –0.42 2.88 0 2014–2016年 –0.77 132.64 0 –0.38 66.32 0 2016–2021年 1.38 22.68 0 0.28 4.54 0 清水沟亚三角洲段 1986–1996年 1 618.03 14 122.78 1.68 161.80 1 412.28 0.17 1996–2002年 361.02 5 540.83 10.20 60.17 923.47 1.70 2002–2006年 –353.35 8 464.43 3.03 –88.34 2 116.11 0.76 2006–2008年 199.28 4 948.06 0 99.64 2 474.03 0 2008–2014年 –223.28 10 476.48 0 –37.21 1 746.08 0 2014–2016年 –361.43 1 074.34 0 –180.71 537.17 0 2016–2021年 606.81 4 625.49 1.45 121.36 925.10 0.29
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表 3 不同岸段不同时期海岸线纵深度年均变化速度（SY）与岸线稳定性指数（E）
Tab. 3 Average annual shorline relocation speed (SY) and coastline stability index (E) of different coastal segments in different periods
指标 岸段 1976–2021年 1976–1986年 1986–1996年 1996–2002年 2002–2006年 2006–2008年 2008–2014年 2014–2016年 2016–2021年 SY/(m·a−1) A 141.52 422.05 138.78 123.13 129.59 119.73 69.20 137.30 90.93 B 66.55 286.92 19.42 0.67 0.25 0.94 0.71 0.74 0.71 C 222.35 633.32 95.94 169.95 250.97 334.63 154.94 154.43 148.58 D 335.91 836.50 553.09 379.09 298.82 233.51 186.24 473.00 281.37 E 44.62 144.48 35.39 81.19 109.82 53.64 19.88 77.84 40.34 E A 0.10 0.10 0.55 0.65 0.74 0.90 0.80 0.86 0.77 B 0.25 0.24 0.82 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 C 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.61 0.60 0.79 0.68 0.83 0.47 D 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.01 0.31 0.67 0.26 0.45 0.39 E 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.60 0.76 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.94
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