台湾以东黑潮经向热输送变异及可能的气候效应
Heat transport variability of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan and its possible climatic effect
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摘要: 基于日本气象厅长序列水文再分析资料,通过估算台湾以东黑潮24°N断面热输送量,分析了该断面黑潮热输送的低频变异特征,并探讨了热输送变异与我国近海海表温度异常变化以及前期(前秋、前冬和春季)和同期(夏季)热输送变异与我国夏季降水异常变化的关联性。小波分析显示,台湾以东黑潮(24°N断面)热输送异常存在着显著的准2 a周期振荡和约16 a的年代际变化,且以上显著周期主要存在于20世纪60年代中期以后,另外,台湾以东黑潮(24°N断面)热输送变异的季节差异明显;50多年来,台湾以东黑潮(24°N断面)热输送呈现出长期增强趋势,但变化幅度不大,且各季节长期趋势也有所不同。相关分析表明,台湾以东黑潮(24°N断面)热输送低频变异可能是我国东部近海SST变化的一个重要因素。另外,回归分析发现,前期及同期台湾以东黑潮(24°N断面)热输送变异对我国东部夏季降水异常变化有显著指示性,可能存在较大影响。Abstract: Based on long time hydrological reanalysis data from Japan Meteorological Agency, the heat transportof Kuroshio (KHT) east of Taiwan on the characteristic section (24°N Section) was estimated by using the dynamical method, and its lower frequency variability was analyzed with wavelet transform technique.Then, the relation between the KHT anomaly and the SSTA in China adjacent seas, as well as the implications of the pre-seasons(autumn, winter and spring) and homachronous(summer) KHT anomaly for summer rainfall anomaly over the Chinese mainland were discussed.The results show that, the KHT east of Taiwan presents notably quasi-2 a and around 16 a variations which were subject to temporal variety and seasonal discrepancy.There is a linear increasing trend in the heat transport for more than 50 years, while its magnitude is small and the long-term trends in four seasons are dissimilar.The correlation analysis suggests that, the KHT east of Taiwan is likely to be an important factor to impact the SST anomalous variation in east China seas on long time scale.And the regression analysis indicates that, the preceding and contemporaneous KHT anomalies east of Taiwan have strong implications for the summer rainfall variations over the east of the mainland with seasonal discrepancy.
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Key words:
- the Kuroshio east of Taiwan /
- heat transport /
- SST /
- summer rainfall /
- wavelet analysis
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