用混沌理论提高潮汐预报的准确度

李燕初; 许德伟; 阮海林

用混沌理论提高潮汐预报的准确度

国家海洋局第三海洋研究所, 福建厦门361005

基金项目: 海洋公益性行业科研专项经费项目(20110532-3);国家海洋局卫星海洋遥感业务化应用项目。

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2010-08-17
- 修回日期: 2011-05-17

Enhancing tidal prediction precision based on the chaos theory

Third Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Xiamen 361005, China

摘要

摘要: 为提高潮位预报的准确性,在具有较长潮汐观测数据的站点,基于混沌理论,对观测值与潮汐模型预测值之差所构成的余水位序列(即误差序列),采用局域线性模型的分析方法,给出可能误差预测,修正模型的预报结果,提高潮汐预报的准确性。所给例子,对预测跨度T=2 h,经局域法修正后,崇武站2007年12月份1个月预测水位统计的RMSE值减少74.7%,厦门站减少60.5%;对T=24 h,崇武、厦门两站RMSE值减小都在50%左右。
- 潮汐预报 /
- 混沌理论 /
- 局域线性模型
Abstract: To improve the tidal prediction accuracy, the error correction of a regional tidal model is carried out using a local model approach based on chaos theory where sufficient tidal measurement data were available. As the examples, for one month (December-2007), the local model correction can remove as much as 74.7% of root mean square error (RMSE) at Chongwu measurement station and 60.5% at Xiamen Station for the prediction horizon T=2 h, and remove around 50% RMSE at above two stations for the prediction horizon T=24 h.
- tidal prediction /
- chaos theory /
- local linear model

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