CCSM3对太平洋年代际振荡的敏感性试验

陈幸荣; 王彰贵; 巢纪平; 蔡怡

CCSM3对太平洋年代际振荡的敏感性试验

1.
中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029;国家海洋环境预报中心,北京 100081;国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,北京 100081
2.
国家海洋环境预报中心,北京 100081;国家海洋环境预报中心国家海洋局海洋灾害预报技术研究重点实验室,北京 100081
3.
国家海洋环境预报中心,北京 100081

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目(40976015);"十一五"国家科技攻关项目(2006BAC03B03)共同资助。

计量
- 文章访问数: 1504
- HTML全文浏览量: 11
- PDF下载量: 1177
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2010-04-20

Decadal variability in the Pacific as simulated by CCSM3

1.
Institude of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China;National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, 100081 China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081,China
2.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, 100081 China;Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing 100081,China
3.
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, 100081 China

摘要

摘要: 利用NCAR的CCSM3模式进行控制试验和1870-1999年的130 a模拟试验(敏感性试验),与相应的再分析资料进行对比,分析了太平洋海区的海温变化趋势和北太平洋年代际变率的时空结构,并且讨论了CO₂对于北太平洋年代际变率的影响。结果表明:CCSM3模式能够模拟出北太平洋年代际变率的主要特征,其空间分布类似于典型的PDO海温异常分布型。特别是考虑了CO₂增长变化以后,模式的结果更加接近再分析资料,其时间变化反映了20世纪北太平洋海温异常所经历的3次位相的转变。CO₂增长变化,可以使这种太平洋年代际变化的周期增长,并且太平洋这种年代际位相转变也与CO₂的变化增长有关。模式在考虑了CO₂增长变化以后,双核的位置会偏东偏深,东西方向的温差将减少,也就是说CO₂的增长变化,对PDO的位置和强度都有影响。
- 全球变暖 /
- CCSM3模式 /
- PDO
Abstract: Using CCSM3 model of NCAR,this study examines the results of control run and 130yr simulation run form year 1870 to 1999. The temperature varying trend of the Pacific Ocean area and the spatial-temporal structure of the North Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed by comparing model output with corresponding reanalysis data. The results indicate that the model simulates well many features of the observed PDO, the spatial distribution pattern of sea surface temperature anomaly are similar to the typical PDO. Especially when the trend of CO₂is considered in simulation, the three important phase-changing of SSTA in North Pacific Ocean in the 20th are well reproduced. The position of two core of temperature anomaly in subsurface are more eastern and deeper, and the temperature difference between east and west are reduced. The increasing of CO₂play an important role in elongating the period and phase-changing of simulated PDO, the position and intensity are also affected.
- global warming /
- CCSM3 model /
- PDO

HTML全文

参考文献(35)

IPCC.气候变化 2007:自然科学基础 // SOLOMON S, QIN D, MANNING M,et al.政府间气候变化专门委员会第一工作组第四次评估报告.剑桥:剑桥大学出版社和美国,纽约,2007.

QUINN W H, NEAL V T. Recent climate change and the 1982-83 El Niño //Proc. Eighth Annual Climate Diagnostic Workshop, Downsville, O N, Canada, NOAA, 1984: 148-154.

QUINN W H, NEAL V T. Recent long-term climate change over the eastern tropical and subtropical Pacific and it s ramifications // Proc. Ninth Annual Climate Diagnostic Work-shop.Corvallis, O R, NOAA, 1985: 101-109.

NITTA T, Yamada S. Recent warming of tropical sea surface temperature and its relationship to the Northern Hemisphere circulation[J].J Meteor Soc Japan, 1989, 67: 375-383.

TRENBERTH K E.Recent observed interdecadal climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere[J]. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1990, 71: 988-993.

EBBESMEYER C C, CAYAN D R, McLAIN D R, et al.1976 step in the Pacific climate: Forty environmental changes between 1968-1975 and 1977-84 // Proc.Seventh Annual Pacific Climate(PA CL IM) Workshop.Pacific Grove, C A, California Dept.of Water Resources, 1991:115-126.

GRAHAM N E. Decadal-scale climate variability in the 1970s and 1980s: Observations and model results[J].Climate Dyn,1994, 10: 135-162.

TRENBERTH K E, HURRELL J W.Decadal atmospheric ocean variations in the Pacific[J].Climate Dyn, 1994, 9: 303-319.

MANTUA N J, HARE S R, ZHANG Y, et al.A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1997, 78 : 1069-1079.

MANTUA N J, HARE S R.The Pacific decadal oscillation[J].J Oceanography, 2002, 58 : 35-44.

江志红,屠其璞.国外有关海气系统年代际变率的机制研究[J].地球科学进展,2001, 16 (4) : 569-573.

王东晓, 谢强, 刘赟, 等.太平洋年代际海洋变率研究进展[J].热带海洋学报, 2003, 22 (1): 76-83.

谷德军, 王东晓, 李春晖.PDO 源地与机制的若干争论[J].热带气象学报,2003,19 (增刊):136-144.

杨修群,朱益民,谢倩,等.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展[J].大气科学,2004,28 (6): 979-992.

吴德星,林霄沛,万修全,等.太平洋年代际变化研究进展浅析[J].海洋学报,2006,28(1):1-8.

WANG X L, ROPELEWSKI C F. An assessment of ENSO-scale secular variablity[J]. J Climate, 1995, 8: 1584-1599.

ZHANG Y, WALLACE J M, BATTISTI D S.ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900293[J].J Climate, 1997, 10(5): 1004-1020.

NEWMAN M, COMPO G P, AL EXANDER M A.ENSO forced variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation[J].J Climate, 2003, 16(23): 3853-3857.

ZHANG Q, YANG H J, ZHONG Y F, et al.An idealized study of the impact of extratropical climate change on El Niño-Southern Oscillation[J].Climate Dyn, 2005, 25 : 869-880.

LIU Z, WU L, GALLIMORE R, et al.Search for the origins of Pacific decadal climate variability[J].Geophys Res Lett, 2002, 29(10):1404-1408.

赵珊珊, 杨修群, 朱益民, 等.热带外太平洋通过海洋过程对热带太平洋的影响[J].海洋学报,2006, 28(3): 29-40.

GERSHUNOV A, BARNETT T P.Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnection[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1998, 79: 2715-2725.

POWER S, CASEY T, FOLLAND C, et al.Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia[J].Climate Dyn, 1999, 15: 319-324.

TRENBERTH K E, HOAR T J.The 1990-1995 El Niño-Southern Oscillation event: longest on record[J]. Geophys Res Lett, 1996, 23 : 57-60.

WANG B.Interdecadal changes in El Niño onset in the last four decades[J].J Climate, 1995, 8: 267-285.

朱益民,杨修群,俞永强,等. FGOALS-g快速耦合模式模拟的北太平洋年代际变率[J].地球物理学报,2008,51(1): 58-69.

COLLINS W D, BITZ C M, BLACKMON M L,et al. The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) [J].Journal of Climate, 2006, 19(11): 2122-2143.

COLLINS W D, RASCH P J, BOVILLE B A,et al. The formulation and atmospheric simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3) [J]. Journal of Climate, 2006, 19(11): 2144-2161.

DANABASOGLU G, LARGE W G, TRIBBIA J J,et al. Diurnal coupling in the tropical Oceans of CCSM3[J].Journal of Climate, 2006,19(11): 2347-2365.

LARGE W G, DANABASOGLU G. Attribution and impacts of upper-ocean biases in CCSM3[J]. Journal of Climate, 2006, 19(11): 2325-2346.

HURRELL J W, HACK J J, PHILLIPS A,et al. The dynamical simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3) [J]. Journal of Climate, 2006,19(11): 2162-2183.

宋振亚,乔方利,杨永增,等.波致混合对热带太平洋海气耦合模式中冷舌模拟的改进[J].自然科学进展,2006,16(9):1138-1145.

宋振亚,乔方利,赵伟.波致混合对CCSM3气候模式预测能力的改进[J].自然科学进展,2009,19(2):203-211.

MINOBE S.Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific : role in climatic regime shifts[J].Geophys Res Lett, 1999, 26 : 855-858.

NAKAMURA H, LIN G, YAMAGATA T.Decadal climate variability in the North Pacific during the recent decades[J].Bull Am Met Soc, 1997, 78: 2215-2225.

施引文献

资源附件(0)

访问统计