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SST对黄海、渤海登陆热带气旋路径和强度的影响

陈艳秋 袁子鹏 王元

陈艳秋, 袁子鹏, 王元. SST对黄海、渤海登陆热带气旋路径和强度的影响[J]. 海洋学报, 2008, 30(1): 31-41.
引用本文: 陈艳秋, 袁子鹏, 王元. SST对黄海、渤海登陆热带气旋路径和强度的影响[J]. 海洋学报, 2008, 30(1): 31-41.
CHEN Yan-qiu, YUAN Zi-peng, WANG Yuan. The impact of SST on the track and intensity of landing tropical cyclones from Huanghai Sea and Bohai Sea[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2008, 30(1): 31-41.
Citation: CHEN Yan-qiu, YUAN Zi-peng, WANG Yuan. The impact of SST on the track and intensity of landing tropical cyclones from Huanghai Sea and Bohai Sea[J]. Haiyang Xuebao, 2008, 30(1): 31-41.

SST对黄海、渤海登陆热带气旋路径和强度的影响

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(973:2004CB418301);国家自然科学基金(40333025);辽宁省气象正研培养基金;江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK2005081)

The impact of SST on the track and intensity of landing tropical cyclones from Huanghai Sea and Bohai Sea

  • 摘要: 利用中国气象局整编的1949~2003年的热带气旋资料和美国国家环境预报中心的海表温度(SST)最优插值资料,应用EOF分解和概率分析等方法,分析了黄海、渤海登陆热带气旋个例所处环境场中的海温的空间和时间分布规律,计算得到该类热带气旋在黄海、渤海区达到最大可能强度(MPI)的概率分布。结果显示,在黄海、渤海海区的较强的(>1℃)SST正距平中心和渤海北部海域的SST正距平区是黄海、渤海登陆TC出现北行路径必要条件。所有TC个例过程发生之前均有一个黄海、渤海关键区SST距平上升过程,只有30%的TC达到MPI一半,只有1%的TC可能达到MPI的4/5。
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2007-04-09
  • 修回日期:  2007-08-27

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