SST对黄海、渤海登陆热带气旋路径和强度的影响
The impact of SST on the track and intensity of landing tropical cyclones from Huanghai Sea and Bohai Sea
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摘要: 利用中国气象局整编的1949~2003年的热带气旋资料和美国国家环境预报中心的海表温度(SST)最优插值资料,应用EOF分解和概率分析等方法,分析了黄海、渤海登陆热带气旋个例所处环境场中的海温的空间和时间分布规律,计算得到该类热带气旋在黄海、渤海区达到最大可能强度(MPI)的概率分布。结果显示,在黄海、渤海海区的较强的(>1℃)SST正距平中心和渤海北部海域的SST正距平区是黄海、渤海登陆TC出现北行路径必要条件。所有TC个例过程发生之前均有一个黄海、渤海关键区SST距平上升过程,只有30%的TC达到MPI一半,只有1%的TC可能达到MPI的4/5。Abstract: Based on the annual TC dataset of CMA and OI data of SST of NCEP, by using EOF and Proba- bility Analysis, the space-time distribution characteristics of the SST linked with the tropical cyclones landing from Huanghai Sea and Bohai Sea are explored.The probability of reaching Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) of these storms is calculated.The results indicate, the obvious positive anomaly (> 1℃) of SST in Huanghai Sea and Bohai Sea are essential condition for north track of the TCs.Before every TC moving across the two seas, the SST anomaly of a key region is going up.Only 30% of the storms can reach to 50% of their MPI, and only 1% can reach to 80%.
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Key words:
- SST /
- TC /
- EOF /
- MPI /
- probability analysis
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