海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险评估

梁海燕; 邹欣庆

海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险评估

梁海燕¹,
邹欣庆²

1.
南京大学, 海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室, 江苏南京 210093;海南省, 海洋监测预报中心, 海南, 海口 570311
2.
南京大学, 海岸与海岛开发教育部重点实验室, 江苏南京 210093

基金项目: 海南省自然科学基金项目(40303).

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2005-04-08
- 修回日期: 2005-07-04

Risk assessment on storm surge in the Haikou Bay

LIANG Hai-yan¹,
ZOU Xin-qing²

1.
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Coastal and Island Development, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China;Marine Monitor and Forecast Center of Hainan, Haikou 570311, China
2.
Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Coastal and Island Development, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China

摘要

摘要: 参考内陆洪水损失评估的方法,建立适用于海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险区的损失评估模型,分析了海口湾沿岸风暴潮的风险区域,并根据100a一遇极值高水位、100a一遇风暴潮与最高天文潮位的组合水位、可能最大风暴潮与最高天文潮位的组合高水位条件,分析淹没范围;统计100a一遇极值高水位淹没区内的建筑物,估计可能受灾人口.该文对海口湾沿岸的基本社会经济资料作了一、二级分类,并逐项进行统计,同时还根据需要作了抽样调查.对分部门的损失率计算方法作了详细介绍,得出个人家庭财产、国家集体财产、农作物和海水养殖等分部门的损失率分别为:30%,4%,70%和100%;以2001年社会经济资料为基础,100a一遇极值高水位为条件,计算出潮灾经济损失约为8.32亿元,个人家庭财产、国家集体财产、农作物及海水养殖、人员伤亡损失、间接损失等分部门的损失金额占总损失的比率分别为:13.0%,70.0%,0.7%,0.8%和15.5%.
- 风暴潮 /
- 灾害 /
- 风险评估
Abstract: Based on the flood loss evaluation method,the storm surge risk loss evaluation model of Haikou Bay is set up in this paper,with which,the storm surge risk district of Haikou Bay is analyzed.Possible submer gedareas are also analyzed according to the maximum hightidal level,the combination of strongest storm surge and highest astrono mical tide within 100 a scale.In addition,buildings and population in the submerged regions are statistically counted.Social and economic data are also analyzed in the paper.After introducing the methods of loss rate calculation,loss rates of private property,national collective property,crop and sea farming are estimated as 30%,4%,70%,100% separately.Taking social economic data in 2001 as the baseline,in the case of maximum high tidal level within 100 a scale,the economic loss caused by the storm surge is 832 million RM B,while the loss of private property,national collective property,crop and sea farming,monetary loss of death,indirect loss respectively is 13.0%,70.0%,0.7%,0.8%,15.5%.
- storm surge /
- disaster /
- risk evaluation

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