摘要:
提出了一种带周期项的海平面变化灰色分析模型.该模型保持了GM(1,1)模型能较好反应海平面变化趋势的优点,不仅能求出海平面变化速率,还能方便求出海平面变化的加速度,同时,该模型能较好的模拟海平面变化中的周期现象,从而克服了GM(1,1)不能预报周期性显著的月平均海面的缺点,并提高了预报精度.模型用于广西沿岸海平面变化分析,结果表明北海、涸洲、白龙尾3站的相对海平面上升速率分别为1.67、2.51、0.89mm/a;石头埠相对海平面呈下降趋势,下降速率为0.5～1.0mm/a;广西沿岸绝对海平面上升速率为2.0mm/a.和线性趋势项与周期项叠加的海平面分析模型相比,两者模拟精度相当.
Abstract:
A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis is presented in this paper.The present model remains some advantages of (UM (1,1)model,which well reflects the trend of sea-level changes and gives out the change rate as well as acceleration of sea level conveniently.In addition, the present model can reproduce the periodic phenomenons of sea level, hence, it overcomes the shortcomings of GM (1,1)model that is unsuitable for forecasting monthly mean sea level with apparent periodicity,and the prediction accuracy is improved.The present model is used to analyse Guangxi coast sea level, the results show that, the rise rates of relative sea level at Beihai, Weizhou and I3ailongwei are respectively 1.67, 2.51 and 0.89 mm/a, the relative sea level at Shitoubu has a faVing trend, the fall rate is 0.5~1.0 mm/a, the rise rate of eustatic sea level along Guangxt coast is 2.0 mmia.In comparison with the model of linear trend term plus periodic term, the simulation accuracies of both models are equivalent.
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