摘要:
浙东海岸为东海沿岸遭受台风袭击严重的地段之一.而台风增水所导致的暴潮水位往往又是造成灾害的主要原因.因此,研制或改进出一种适应该地区台风增水的预报技术,并使之投入具体的预报业务,仍是当前一个迫切的研究课题.为此,我们在研究了“Pore模式”的基础上,结合我国具体情况,设计了东海海平面气压网格用于热带风暴(台风)增水的预报,建立一种多港口且具一定时效的预报模式.本文以浙东沿岸两个港口为例,作了初步检验,结果较好.
Abstract:
After analysing the characteristics of the typhoon surges and the surface weather charts of the typhoon over the East China Sea,we have designed a sea-level pressure grid of the East China Sea,And every pressure value at these grid points is considered as possible predictor of surge.Forecasting equations for two ports along the east coast of zhe,jiangl province are derived from statistical screening grocedure,and an earlier time shift of 6-hr anid 9-hr are given.The inspection indicates that most of the errors are less.There is a possibility that this method will become a forecasting-technique for the coast of the East China Sea.
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