摘要:
海洋水温预报的研究,目前已成为现代海洋学的重要课题之一。这一研究的重要意义在于:(1)海洋中的海水,无论就其质量还是热容量而论,均远比大气大得多。海洋是地球上巨大的贮热库,并不断以各种方式向大气输送热能,影响着大气的热、动力状况。因此,水温预报成为近代海—气相互作用总课题中的重要部分。(2)在渔业海洋学中,水温预报是建立和发布渔情预报的重要环节。预知水温的变化和分布,将对鱼群的寻找和捕捞,具有重要的指导意义。(3)在海洋开发及国防建设上,对于水下声学装置的设置及水声仪表的有效使用等,也是一个重要的环境条件。
Abstract:
Based on studies of the variance of water temperature, two methods for forecasting the surface temperature in the East China Sea were proposed in this paper. The first method,consisting of non-harmonic analysis and steady random extrapolapolation, is proposed to forecast the short term mean monthly and tenday sea surface temperatures. (S.S.T.).In the second method,the time (weight) coefficieats of the S.S.T. field are separated by orthogonal function,and then a non-harmonic analysis is made to establish the long-term and broad range mean monthly and ten-day S.S.T.forecasting technique.In the first metod, it is assumed that the variation of S.S.T.with time consists of periodic and random components.Applying the non-harmonic analysis to the former variation and the steady random extrapolation to the latter, the v.m.s.errors in the back prediction of mean monthly and ten-day S.S.T.for the total sea area are ±0.67℃ and ±0.87℃ respectively.
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