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1985–2019年南海诸岛珊瑚礁区热压力时空变化研究分析

陆永强 陈正华 余克服 何鑫 张威 兰思香

陆永强,陈正华,余克服,等. 1985–2019年南海诸岛珊瑚礁区热压力时空变化研究分析[J]. 海洋学报,2022,44(11):179–190 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022129
引用本文: 陆永强,陈正华,余克服,等. 1985–2019年南海诸岛珊瑚礁区热压力时空变化研究分析[J]. 海洋学报,2022,44(11):179–190 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022129
Lu Yongqiang,Chen Zhenghua,Yu Kefu, et al. Spatio-temporal variations of heat stress in coral reef regions over the South China Sea islands from 1985 to 2019[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2022, 44(11):179–190 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022129
Citation: Lu Yongqiang,Chen Zhenghua,Yu Kefu, et al. Spatio-temporal variations of heat stress in coral reef regions over the South China Sea islands from 1985 to 2019[J]. Haiyang Xuebao,2022, 44(11):179–190 doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022129

1985–2019年南海诸岛珊瑚礁区热压力时空变化研究分析

doi: 10.12284/hyxb2022129
基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(42090041,42030502);广西科技项目(AD17129063,AA17204074);广西自然科学基金(2018GXNSFAA281100)
详细信息
    作者简介:

    陆永强(1996-),男,贵州省晴隆县人,主要研究热压力对南海珊瑚礁区的胁迫作用。E-mail: YongJohnLu@163.com

    通讯作者:

    陈正华(1979-),女,重庆市人,副教授,博士,主要从事海洋及海岸带的生态和环境研究。E-mail: chen.zhenghua@163.com

    余克服(1969-),湖北省公安县人,教授,博士,主要从事珊瑚礁地质、生态与环境的研究。E-mail: kefuyu@scsio.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: P737.2

Spatio-temporal variations of heat stress in coral reef regions over the South China Sea islands from 1985 to 2019

  • 摘要: 全球气候变暖引起的热压力增大是南海诸岛珊瑚礁面临的最主要威胁,基于热压力对珊瑚礁白化的评估有利于对其保护和管理。周热度(Degree Heating Week , DHW)可以衡量热压力的强度和持续时间,代表过去连续12周珊瑚礁区海表温度(SST)正异常的累积。本文基于美国国家海洋和大气管理珊瑚礁监测计划(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Coral Reef Watch, NOAA-CRW)海表温度数据集,逐像元对35个年最大周热度数值进行K-means聚类分析,将南海诸岛珊瑚礁区分为6个区域:南沙–1、南沙–2、南沙–3、东沙、西沙和中沙珊瑚礁区。分析南海诸岛珊瑚礁区1985–2019年热压力时空变化及其与El Niño的相关关系。结果表明:(1)南海诸岛珊瑚礁区最大DHW为0~12.9℃−周,纬度上由高到低呈现减小变化规律。(2)线性拟合法分析1985–2019年的年最大DHW,显示南海诸岛珊瑚礁区热压力强度呈现上升趋势,为0.013~0.174℃−周/a,南海诸岛珊瑚礁区最大DHW出现在1998年、2010年、2014年。(3)年最大DHW可能造成93.9%的珊瑚礁发生超过一次白化的风险,19.6%的珊瑚礁发生超过一次死亡的风险。(4)南海诸岛珊瑚礁区的月均DHW和ONI交叉小波分析显示两者存在多时段8~32个月共振周期的时频特征和时滞相关性,证实南海诸岛珊瑚礁热压力随着厄尔尼诺事件发生而显著增大;时滞相关分析表明,ONI与南海诸岛珊瑚礁区热压力呈正相关关系,后者滞后于前者7~9个月的时间。
  • 图  1  南海诸岛珊瑚礁研究区

    南海诸岛珊瑚礁区20 km缓冲(a)和K-means聚类分区(b)的地理空间分布(地图底图来自国家基础地理信息中心,网址:http://www.ngcc.cn/ngcc/)

    Fig.  1  Location of coral reef regions in the South China Sea islands

    Geographical distribution of 20 km buffer (a) and K-means clustering partition (b) in the coral reef regions of the South China Sea islands

    图  2  南海诸岛珊瑚礁区年最大周热度小提琴图

    Fig.  2  The violin plots of the annual maximum degree heating week in the coral reef regions of ​​the South China Sea islands

    图  3  1985–2019年南海诸岛珊瑚礁区热压力异质性变化

    最大周热度(DHW)(a)、年最大DHW趋势(b)、最大DHW年份(c)、年最大DHW ≥ 4℃−周发生的频数(d)、年最大DHW ≥ 8℃−周发生的频数(e)的百分比直方图

    Fig.  3  Heat stress heterogeneity changes in the coral reef regions of the South China Sea islands from 1985 to 2019

    Percentage histogram of the distribution of maximum degree heating weeks (DHW) (a), annual trend of maximum DHW (b), maximum DHW value in each year (c), frequency of annual maximum DHW ≥ 4℃-weeks (d), frequency of annual maximum DHW ≥ 8℃-weeks (e)

    图  4  1985–2019年珊瑚礁区月平均周热度(DHW)和ONI时间序列

    Fig.  4  Time series of monthly mean degree heating week (DHW) of coral reef area and oceanic Niño index (ONI) from 1985 to 2019

    图  5  东沙(a)、西沙(b)、中沙(c)、南沙–1(d)、南沙–2(e)、南沙–3(f)珊瑚礁区月平均周热度(DHW)和ONI的交叉小波能量谱

    黑线包围区域内表示其通过5%显著性水平的标准红噪声检验。←表示El Niño与DHW为负位相变化,→表示El Niño与DHW为同位相变化,↓表示El Niño落后DHW变化3个月,↑表示El Niño超前DHW 3个月

    Fig.  5  The cross wavelet transform characteristics of monthly mean degree heating week (DHW) of Dongsha (a), Xisha (b), Zhongsha (c), Nansha–1 (d), Nansha–2 (e), and Nansha–3 (f) coral reef area with oceanic Niño index (ONI)

    The black lines surrounding areas indicate that it has passed the standard red noise test at the 5% significance level. ← denotes the negative phase change between El Niño and DHW, → denotes the same phase change between El Niño and DHW, ↓ denotes that El Niño lags behind DHW for 3 months, ↓ denotes that El Niño advances DHW for 3 months

    图  6  东沙(a)、西沙(b)、中沙(c)、南沙–1(d)、南沙–2(e)、南沙–3(f)珊瑚礁区月平均周热度(DHW)与ONI时滞分析

    Fig.  6  Time lag analysis between monthly mean degree heating week (DHW) of Dongsha (a), Xisha (b), Zhongsha (c), Nansha−1 (d), Nansha−2 (e), and Nansha−3 (f) coral reef area with oceanic Niño index (ONI)

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  • 收稿日期:  2022-03-25
  • 修回日期:  2022-05-29
  • 网络出版日期:  2022-06-24
  • 刊出日期:  2022-11-03

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